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Erik Wetterling – Value Proposition In Montage Gold, Inflection Resources, and K2 Gold

The KE Report Jan 20, 2026

Summary

Erik Wetterling argues Montage Gold still has upside on the second leg of the Lassonde curve, with ex-Endeavour management running ahead of schedule at Koné in Côte d'Ivoire.

He frames Inflection Resources as a many-targets, AngloGold Ashanti-funded hunt for Tier-1 porphyries in New South Wales, where one discovery could rerate the stock.

K2 Gold's Si2 drilling in Nevada is a cheap optionality shot at a Silicon/Merlin-style epithermal, while the Mojave project remains the flagship.

Wetterling stresses probability stacking: even a sub-5% per-target hit rate compounded across Inflection's roughly 30 targets builds a credible discovery case.

Disclosure: the guest owns shares in all three names and is a banner sponsor of K2 Gold on the Hedgeless Horseman website.

Key points on Anglogold Ashanti

  • AngloGold Ashanti (~$50B market cap) is Inflection Resources' earn-in JV partner — funded to 75% on the condition the senior pays all the way to PFS, which Erik Wetterling benchmarks at ~$200M for a porphyry project.
  • The consolidated Silicon/Merlin deposit (~16M oz) is cited in the discussion as the geologic analog K2 Gold's Si2 project is modeled on.

Key points on Artemis Gold

  • Erik Wetterling names Artemis Gold's Blackwater build as one of the benchmarks for a successful Lassonde-curve second-leg mine builder, using it as a comparable for Montage Gold.

Key points on Endeavour Mining

  • Montage Gold's management team is drawn heavily from ex-Endeavour Mining people; Wetterling frames the company's ambition as essentially 'build another Endeavour.'

Key points on G Mining Ventures

  • Named alongside Artemis Gold as a successful second-leg Lassonde-curve comparable — G Mining's Tocantinzia project — for Montage Gold.

Key points on Lundin Gold

  • Used as a valuation benchmark for Montage: Lundin Gold trades at a ~$29B market cap producing 500K oz/yr at a world-class deposit, which Wetterling leans on to argue Montage at ~$4.05B is not stretched.

Key points on Newmont

  • Sold an IOCG project portfolio (inherited from Newcrest) to Inflection Resources, contributing to Inflection's expanded Macquarie Arc land package.

Key points on Montage Gold

  • Erik Wetterling's top call on Montage: it is in the second leg of the Lassonde curve and he sees 50%+ upside over the next year — possibly more in 2026 — even after a 12–14x run from the lows.
  • Management alpha is the core thesis: ex-Endeavour operators plus Lundin Mining backing; the Africa Gold acquisition is presented as the kind of accretive 'cheap deal' he expects more of.
  • Production target ~400K oz/yr from the Koné district with a feasibility ASIC around $1,081/oz — close to Lundin Gold's Frutti del Norte — supported by Côte d'Ivoire's permitting track record for a future Africa Gold build-out.
  • Execution already ahead of schedule: first pour guided to Q4 2026 vs. the Q2 2027 feasibility plan; current market cap ~$4.05B as of the 2026-01-20 recording.
  • Wetterling expects the company to 'look different every year' — additional accretive deals beyond the ~1Moz at ~2.5 g/t Africa Gold starting point — making a flat year-down-here unlikely in his base case.

Key points on K2 Gold Corp

  • Erik Wetterling frames Si2 as a low-cost, optionality-only swing for K2 Gold — the flagship remains Mojave, which already carries 'insane' historic intercepts and most of the valuation.
  • Si2 sits northwest of Tonopah, NV, and is explicitly modeled on AngloGold Ashanti's consolidated Silicon/Merlin project (~16M oz) — same low-sulfidation epithermal play in the same state.
  • Prior drilling returned ~0.5 g/t over 3.2m; the new program is roughly 2,000m at a cost he estimates around $6K — cheap enough that a miss does not damage the Mojave thesis.
  • Blue-sky scenario: a discovery could force a spin-out of Si2 as a standalone, since K2's market cap currently attributes almost no value to it; Wetterling backs the swing-for-the-fences shot given favorable US critical-minerals headlines.
  • K2 is well-funded and is a banner sponsor of Wetterling's site, so the Si2 program is funded from cash, not dilution risk.

Erik Wetterling's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Erik Wetterling's central call: gold at ~$4,600 as of the 2026-01-20 recording means Lassonde-curve second-leg developers with credible builders — Montage Gold is his top expression — still have 50%+ upside, and he prefers to size winners up rather than rotate out after a 10x.
  • On Inflection, his framework is probabilistic — stacking ~30 tier-1 targets at low single-digit success rates against a ~$37M market cap to justify a multi-year hold despite a flat share price.
  • He explicitly flags his own bias: he owns all three stocks covered and K2 Gold and New Quest Capital are banner sponsors of his site — his on-air disclosure is 'twice biased.'
  • On K2 Gold, he endorses Si2 as a high-upside / low-cost wildcard that should not hurt the Mojave thesis if it misses, and frames a successful execution as a likely spin-out catalyst.
  • Process stance: he typically waits for post-discovery entries, but says Inflection is the rare pre-discovery story worth holding because the breadth of the target portfolio replaces single-target risk.

Shannon Corey's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Shannon Corey hosts and frames the discussion across three stages — Montage Gold (development), Inflection Resources (AngloGold JV exploration), and K2 Gold (Mojave flagship plus Si2 drill program) — and adds the rule of thumb that the second leg of the Lassonde curve typically doubles off a construction decision.