First Phosphate's Race to Production | John Passalacqua - First Phosphate
The Deep Dive Aug 10, 2026
Summary
First Phosphate is targeting open-pit igneous phosphate production by 2029 — only three to four years away.
The recent infill drill program upgraded resources, moving them from Inferred to Indicated and Measured.
Management expects the feasibility study to wrap by late 2026 or early 2027, enabling permits and offtake talks.
John Passalacqua's takeaways
- Top takeaway Argues First Phosphate's central focus is getting its igneous open-pit phosphate mine into production by 2029 — only 3-4 years out from the as-of date.
- Cites the just-finished infill drill program — which upgraded resources from Inferred to Indicated and Indicated to Measured — as a key recent de-risking step.
- Frames completing the feasibility study by end of 2026 / early 2027 as the critical unlock for permits, capital raises, and closing out remaining offtake agreements.
- Lays out a sequencing thesis: feasibility first, then permits, capital, and offtakes, to assemble a capital stack that brings the mine into operations.