Gareth Soloway: Gold Is About To Go Parabolic - $13,600 Target!

VRIC Media Sep 11, 2026 25:19

Summary

A VIX near 15 signals complacency — historically that low reading precedes sharp volatility spikes investors are not pricing in.

Massive AI and data-center capex is masking consumer stress; a pullback would expose underlying housing and credit weakness.

Shortening gold cycles, expanding U.S. debt, and central bank buying underpin the guest's long-term $13,000 gold target by 2030.

Silver is consolidating between $63 and $70, with $50 and $88 the key break targets; copper is set up for a short.

Oil is unlikely to reach $150 given U.S. energy independence, and the guest sees possible $50 oil if the economy slows.

Top takeaway Gareth targets gold at roughly $13,000 by ~2030, citing shortening gold cycles (1980 to 2011 to 2026), expanding US debt and money supply, de-dollarization, and ongoing central-bank buying; he argues that over a 5-10 year horizon he would be shocked if gold were not triple the price.
He reads the VIX sitting near 15 as a complacency setup that historically precedes a sharp spike, and flags the post-midterm window — with no elections for two more years — as the catalyst risk if the US takes military action near Iran or key oil shipping lanes.
He expects oil could fall toward $50 a barrel over the next 12 months on an economic slowdown, pointing to cooling AI and data-center capex, a weakening housing market especially in Florida, rising auto-loan and credit-card delinquencies, and mortgage rates near 6.5-7% squeezing consumers.
On the 10-year Treasury, he sees a double-top rejection from the January 2025 high and leans short rates near-term; he does not expect the Fed to hike in September and looks for cuts to begin in 2027 once economic weakness shows up.
On silver he reads a bullish consolidation leaning to an upside break toward about $88 an ounce, with $50 acting as a magnetic psychological floor tied to the 1980 and 2011 peaks; on copper he plans to short into the multi-year channel top near $7, with AI and data-center capex as the main risk to that short thesis.

Top takeaway As host, he frames the macro backdrop — tariffs, the Strait of Hormuz standoff, oil creeping higher, and President Trump publicly pressuring the Fed to cut rates — as the entry point for the discussion with Gareth.
He argues, citing a chart he posted on X, that gold held up well through the Fed's 2021-2023 hiking cycle, and highlights the policy tension between Scott Bessent buying long-dated Treasuries to suppress yields and Kevin Warsh's hawkish hike rhetoric.