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KER Market QuickTake - Silver at $90! Why Aren’t the Stocks Exploding?

The KE Report Jan 14, 2026

Summary

Silver has surged above $90 yet mining equities lag sharply — the SIL ETF-to-silver ratio sits at 2020-crash and 2015-bottom levels.

Q4 average silver and gold prices will likely set records, leaving even a sharp Q1 correction unlikely to drag averages below Q4's high bar.

Silver producer margins expand faster than the metal — a 7% rise in silver can mean 20-30% margin growth thanks to largely fixed operating costs.

Major miners are not buying mid-tiers despite record metals, leaving M&A unusually quiet — except for juniors acquiring producing assets from seniors.

Capital is rotating from precious-metal equities into copper, lithium, and uranium — sectors that were unloved last year and are now leading.

Key points on Coeur Mining

  • Cory notes that when Q3 numbers came out, the stock posted a double-digit pop along with Hecla and First Majestic on stronger silver prices

Key points on First Majestic Silver

  • Cory notes that when Q3 numbers came out, the stock posted a double-digit pop along with Hecla and Coeur Mining on stronger silver prices

Key points on Hecla Mining Company

  • Cory notes that when Q3 numbers came out, the stock posted a double-digit pop along with Coeur Mining and First Majestic on stronger silver prices

Cory Fleck's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Argues the silver stock lag is not a disappointment, saying the gap between metal prices and equities should set up a longer bull run once stocks play catch-up
  • Says he would actually prefer silver to correct toward around $70 to establish a technical level, because historical silver spikes have tended to mark market tops
  • Favors the gold market here, noting GDX is up over 11% and GDXJ just under 10% this month versus gold up about 6%, and draws a parallel to 2014 when majors led before money trickled down
  • Calls the lack of M&A the biggest missing piece for the sector and wants to see majors use cash to acquire mid-tiers and developers the way large tech firms absorb smaller companies
  • Has been buying silver financings of smaller companies priced pre-breakout since November and doubts outside manufacturers will start taking mining assets private

Shad Markwitz's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Expresses shock and disappointment that silver stocks are not exploding on the breakout, noting the SIL-to-silver ratio is at levels last seen during the 2020 pandemic crash and the December 2015 bottom
  • Says the market has not yet processed silver trading in the $60s, $70s, and $80s, with major miners actually down on record-high prices
  • Frames Q4 as likely a record quarter, with average silver probably in the mid-$50s and gold around $4,200 versus Q3's $39 silver, making a deep Q1 correction unlikely
  • Attributes the silver-stock lag to a rotation of capital into copper, uranium, lithium, tin, and nickel rather than any distraction by broader markets
  • Trimmed profits in September and October, nibbled back in November after the 30-60% drawdown, added to uranium and a small oil-and-gas contrarian position, and is now mostly in a hold mode waiting for Q4 prints