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SILVER BREAKOUT STARTED? New Bull Cycle Could Be Underway | Peter Krauth

Liberty and Finance Aug 14, 2026

Summary

Krauth pegs roughly 65% odds that silver has begun a new bull cycle, yet stays cautious because price remains below the 200-day moving average.

About $8 trillion of US Treasuries need to roll over the next year, with the 10-year yield already up roughly 10% from its March bottom.

Today's US debt-to-GDP of about 120%, versus roughly 35% in the 1970s, leaves the Fed with no room to fight inflation the Volcker way.

Krauth expects a 1970s-style three-wave inflation pattern, with a second wave hitting over the next six months and policy drifting toward yield curve control.

Miners are framed as a way to amplify silver's upside, with Krauth seeing 5 to 10 years left in the secular bull market.

Elijah K. Johnson's takeaways

  • Top takeaway He frames the breakout question, noting silver rose about $10 from its lows to around the $66 level (as of August 13, 2026) and asking whether this is just range-bound trading or the start of a real move.
  • He recalls their first conversation when silver was around $20 and Krauth had just published "The Great Silver Bowl," underscoring the long-term perspective that brings them to today's $65 price.

Peter Krauth's takeaways

  • Top takeaway He places roughly 65% odds that silver has begun a new upward cycle off the ~$55 lows, with the metal near $65 as of August 13, 2026, though he remains technically cautious because both gold and silver are still below their 200-day moving averages.
  • He argues silver is in a secular bull still with 5 to 10 years (or more) to run, tends to follow gold and outperform it in bull markets, and views pullbacks like the recent 50%+ drop from $120 to $55 as buying opportunities for investors with conviction.
  • He warns of a 1970s-style three-wave inflation pattern, calling the 2022 ~9% peak only the first wave and arguing the second is starting now, driven by $8T of US Treasuries renewing, a 10-year yield up about 10% since March, a $40T debt and a $2T annual deficit that will push the Fed toward yield curve control and financial repression.
  • He concludes that today's roughly 120% US debt-to-GDP (versus about 35% in the 1970s) rules out a Volcker-style rate hike to kill inflation and could force a CBDC-style currency reset, making hard, non-printable precious metals — money for 5,000 years — an essential hedge against debasement.