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Silver Could Sink Lower Before the Bull Run Resumes | James Anderson - Guanajuato Silver

The Deep Dive Jun 24, 2026

Summary

Anderson says silver's slide from the mid-$90s to the mid-$60s isn't over; he expects a bottom in months, not years, with the supply deficit unfixed.

The guest calls the AI investment boom a bubble that resolves badly either way - mass job displacement, or trillions of capital mispriced and sold.

Guanajuato Silver budgets 2026 conservatively at $54 silver and $3,920 gold, then sold some metal forward near the highs.

Record Q1 revenue of $43 million included Bolanitos only from January 15; elevated AISC (all-in sustaining cost) reflects deliberate drilling and tunneling, not operating failure.

Growth now hinges on consolidating the Guanajuato district; Fresnillo's adjacent dormant mines are the prize for a company built on acquisitions.

Key points on Fresnillo

  • The guest names Fresnillo, which he calls the largest silver mining company in the world, as the owner of several dormant mines sitting immediately adjacent to Guanajuato Silver's operations in the Guanajuato district.
  • He says Fresnillo has shown no interest in selling those assets and that he respects that position, while arguing that a deal to consolidate them would be the most logical expansion path for Guanajuato Silver.

Key points on Guanajuato Silver

  • The guest reports Guanajuato Silver's strongest quarter to date, released at the end of May 2026: record revenue of $43 million, up 89% from the prior quarter, record EBITDA of $13.1 million and record mine operating income of $14 million, which he attributes only partly to operations and largely to strong silver and gold prices.
  • He says the Bolanitos mine, bought from Endeavor Silver for $50 million and closed on 15 January 2026, is integrating very well: San Ignacio material was already being processed at the Bolanitos plant by February, and a pilot drill hole between the two mines has located the tunnels so underground development can connect them within weeks, cutting haulage distance and opening ventilation shafts on the San Ignacio side.
  • He says remaining integration work is largely social and legal rather than technical, because Guanajuato bought the Endeavor subsidiary rather than the mine, so the two employee groups still work for separate companies under Mexican labour law; he expects to fold the San Ignacio assets into Minera Bolanitos over the coming months.
  • For 2026 the company budgets at $54 silver and $3,920 gold, and he says it deliberately sold some metal well above those levels during price swings, with that selling hedged only through December 2026 rather than hedged heavily on a long-term view.
  • He says per-ounce costs look elevated partly because the company puts nearly all expenditure into its all-in sustaining cost figure, and partly because exploration and underground development were accelerated in Q1 2026 with about eight drills turning and roughly 16,000 metres of development planned for the year; he expects only incremental improvement in coming quarters, with no dramatic fall in Q2 or Q3.

James Anderson's takeaways

  • Top takeaway He argues the silver bull run is not over, saying the pullback from the mid-$90s to the mid-$60s an ounce as of June 2026 has done nothing to fix the market's supply deficit, and he expects a bottom within weeks or months rather than years before price resumes its advance in both silver and gold.
  • He is confident the current AI investment wave is a market bubble that resolves badly either way: if AI works as promised it puts tens or hundreds of millions of people out of work and causes a dislocation, and if it disappoints, trillions of misallocated capital get corrected. He expects a steep market correction either way but gives no timing.
  • He reads trillion-dollar company valuations as a comment on debasement of the US dollar as reserve currency, noting that precious metals are priced in relation to the value of that reserve currency.
  • He says Guanajuato Silver plans conservatively against volatile prices, budgeting 2026 at $54 silver and $3,920 gold and selling into strength when the market allows, while accepting that a producer never captures the top of a metals cycle.
  • His stated ambition for the next twelve months is district consolidation: he calls Guanajuato Silver the natural acquirer of other assets inside the Guanajuato district, says the company has proved it can finance acquisitions accretively for shareholders, and would be selective about anything further afield, taking a deal only at a great price or with immediate synergies.

Steve Hyland's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The host frames the interview around two arguments he pushes the guest on: whether the recent silver pullback ends the bull run, and whether AI companies raising very large sums could pull capital out of broader equity markets.
  • He presses on the criticisms of Guanajuato Silver's per-ounce cost metrics that he says circulate on message boards, and on settling the company's gold loan before year-end, while ending the interview by asking the guest what success would look like in twelve months.