Tavi Costa Discusses Macro And Metals
Peter Grandich Sep 3, 2026 18:11
Summary
US twin deficits will force yield suppression and a weaker dollar, the guest argues — a positive backdrop for metals.
Gold remains undervalued as the current 3% treasury backing may need to rise multiples higher, the guest says.
Mining stocks price in future backwardation (declining prices); the guest sees contango (rising prices), calling it an arbitrage.
Silver miners produce at $15-20 per ounce, giving them far wider margins than gold peers, the guest notes.
Copper's supply deficit is visible for 10-15 years — only six tier one discoveries in six years versus six needed by 2050.
Peter Grandich's takeaways
- Top takeaway Grandich cites Robert Freeland's view that six new tier-one copper discoveries will be needed between now and 2050 against only six in the past six years, and frames the copper story as one that 'keeps getting better and better'.
- He positions gold as the indispensable starting point for any metals discussion, telling viewers 'you can't have a conversation about metals without talking about gold' before handing the floor to Costa.
Tavi Costa's takeaways
- Top takeaway Costa argues that suppressing Treasury yields and weakening the US dollar are the path of least resistance to resolving America's twin fiscal and trade-balance deficits, and frames that combination as the macro foundation for bullish metals.
- He says gold remains extremely undervalued, noting US debt levels are roughly comparable to the WWII era while only about 3% of Treasuries are backed by gold versus 45-50% then, and he expects that ratio to rise to multiples of today's level.
- He calls mining equities an arbitrage, arguing sell-side models price metals in backwardation for the next 10-15 years while he expects a 'steep contango' with prices going 'stupidly high'.
- On silver, he argues it has better convexity than gold and notes silver miners producing at roughly $15-$20 per ounce against much higher silver prices, with demand supported by AI, solar, electrification, and onshoring.
- He views copper as a core holding given 10-15 year supply-demand visibility, and separately recommends emerging markets — especially Latin America — as a beneficiary of dollar weakness and falling yields.