TG Watkins - Breakout or Bull Trap? Technical Levels in Gold, Copper, and Tech

The KE Report Aug 17, 2026

Summary

Gold's GDX rebound looks extended; the guest recommends waiting for a pullback to the 50-day moving average before adding.

Copper miners just broke out of a six-month consolidation under all-time-high copper prices, leaving pullbacks buyable as flags build.

The recent AI/tech drawdown traces to an over-leveraged fund getting squeezed by large traders — not a structural shift in the trade.

Fed communication under Warsh echoes a pre-1990s playbook of letting markets self-correct rather than telegraphing every move.

Top takeaway The guest argues Warsh quickly cooled market hopes of rate cuts by putting rate hikes on the table, which is why rate-hike expectations have been fading.
He sees Warsh as deliberately trying to talk the market down a notch so it does not get ahead of itself.
He expects the Fed under Warsh to mostly sit on its hands — neither hiking nor cutting — and to react to the market rather than guide it, echoing a pre-1990s playbook.
He ultimately thinks the trajectory for rates is lower, even if the near term is on hold.
He views the Fed as doing more talking than acting, which he reads as supportive for bulls, and favors watching actual Fed action over commentary.

Top takeaway On gold and GDX, he is not chasing the breakout; he wants a pullback to the daily 21 or 50 to confirm support before adding, and warns the move could be a bounce at a downtrend rather than a new trend.
On copper stocks such as HBM, SCCO, and TGB, he reads six months of sideways action as healthy digestion of a prior multi-month surge, with dips and flags now viable setups.
He attributes the recent AI trade drawdown to a deleveraging squeeze tied to Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund; with that cleared, he thinks the AI bottom is likely in and the market is re-equilibrating higher.
Within AI, he favors software post-sasspocalypse, semiconductors and memory chips, and mega-cap Microsoft and Amazon as AI beneficiaries, with Apple positioned as an anti-AI hedge.
On the broader market, he sees broadening leadership (IWM, equal-weight S&P) as healthier but a bit stretched, and flags potential weakness into US midterms as the next risk to monitor.