TG Watkins

TG Watkins - Technical Outlook on Gold, Copper's AI Tailwinds, and Small-Cap Headwinds

• Top takeaway The guest argues the historic rally in gold and precious metals leaves them needing to chop sideways in a range, with GDX and GLD now back below their daily 50-day moving averages.
• He stays bullish copper on AI build-out demand for electricity, computers, and robots, and would turn only when the AI narrative itself fades.
• He describes a K-shaped market: breadth fell from 70% to 20% of stocks above key moving averages while mega-cap indices hold up, and he is in waiting mode, wanting to be bullish.
• He thinks crypto's lows are in and the space is ready to cycle up on the four-year cycle, but he is sitting out until he sees more consolidation and a pullback.
• He sizes down in choppy regimes, picks stop width to match the trade horizon, and expects a strong market once the midterms pass and big money knows where to go.

TG Watkins argues gold and GDX need to chop sideways after their historic rally, with both now below their 50-day moving averages. Copper stays bullish on AI-driven electricity demand, the guest says, until the AI build-out narrative itself starts to fade. Market breadth plunged from 70% to 20% of stocks above key moving averages, exposing September weakness that flat mega-cap indices hide. Small caps face a tough mix of seasonality, weak breadth, and rising rates, so the guest favors larger, cash-rich names. The guest believes crypto's lows are in after an SEC tokenization-rule postponement juiced the market, but he awaits a pullback before buying.

Axel Merk & TG Watkins - Macro vs Technicals: Gold, GDX, Oil, Copper, Critical Minerals, US Markets

• Top takeaway Watkins says he doubled down on his GDX short at the recent top and is still looking for a pullback to the daily 50, with a possible retest of the 75-76 area if the downtrend resumes
• Watkins sees the same proportional pullback setup in SIL and the underlying silver and gold prices, expecting a retest of the daily 50 before the next move is clear
• Watkins is bearish copper near term, saying momentum has slowed on his MOXI indicator and price is likely to come back to the weekly 21 EMA, with the weekly 50 as a possible further target
• Watkins is bearish copper miners (COPX), calling them extended from the daily 50 and vulnerable to seasonal weakness, AI trade pressure, and prior February 2026 highs acting as resistance
• Watkins says the broader market needs to cycle lower, pointing to the equal-weight RSP breaking down through its daily 50 to the weekly 21 and framing the September-October midterm window as likely to deliver a washout before a renewed rally

Gold sits above $4,000 with rising yields — Merk argues this bull market still has room, with mining equities under-pricing margins at higher metal prices. Merk urges investors to weigh management teams over metal-price forecasts, calling capable operators the scarcest resource in the mining sector. Watkins expects GDX, gold, and silver to pull back toward their daily 50-day moving averages after the late-summer melt-up, with prior lows as possible targets. Oil breaking out near $100 raises inflation risk and complicates the Fed's path, putting pressure on equities broadly while favoring energy producers. Equal-weight S&P and Russell 2000 breaking down while mega-caps hold steady signals seasonal weakness into the midterms, per Watkins's breadth work.

TG Watkins - Breakout or Bull Trap? Technical Levels in Gold, Copper, and Tech

• Top takeaway On gold and GDX, he is not chasing the breakout; he wants a pullback to the daily 21 or 50 to confirm support before adding, and warns the move could be a bounce at a downtrend rather than a new trend.
• On copper stocks such as HBM, SCCO, and TGB, he reads six months of sideways action as healthy digestion of a prior multi-month surge, with dips and flags now viable setups.
• He attributes the recent AI trade drawdown to a deleveraging squeeze tied to Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund; with that cleared, he thinks the AI bottom is likely in and the market is re-equilibrating higher.
• Within AI, he favors software post-sasspocalypse, semiconductors and memory chips, and mega-cap Microsoft and Amazon as AI beneficiaries, with Apple positioned as an anti-AI hedge.
• On the broader market, he sees broadening leadership (IWM, equal-weight S&P) as healthier but a bit stretched, and flags potential weakness into US midterms as the next risk to monitor.

Gold's GDX rebound looks extended; the guest recommends waiting for a pullback to the 50-day moving average before adding. Copper miners just broke out of a six-month consolidation under all-time-high copper prices, leaving pullbacks buyable as flags build. The recent AI/tech drawdown traces to an over-leveraged fund getting squeezed by large traders — not a structural shift in the trade. Fed communication under Warsh echoes a pre-1990s playbook of letting markets self-correct rather than telegraphing every move.

TG Watkins - Tech vs. Value: Navigating Sector Rotations and Key Technical Signals

• Top takeaway The guest argues the AI-trade unwind is largely complete after a leveraged fund's capitulation and roughly 50% pullbacks in AI names, treating today's capitulation as a market bottoming signal — though he cautions it is too early to call a confirmed trend change.
• He says a 50% pullback is typically a healthy reset where buyers start nibbling, but turning a long downtrend takes time: the 8 and 21 daily EMAs need to cross up, price needs to break and reclaim the daily 50, and then the daily 50 itself needs to turn up.
• He is positioning for rotation back into growth — semis (SMH), data centers and power plays — and away from defensives like XLP and XLV, which he expects to give back recent strength now that tech and semis have bounced.
• On gold and silver he sees a potential bounce forming — gold put in a higher low from July 16 to July 29, the hourly 50 crossing over the hourly 200, and the 8/21 daily EMAs converging — but says keep positions close with a stop until price proves the daily 50 is no longer resistance.
• He frames the next couple of months as jittery and choppy into seasonal weakness (August and September) and midterm uncertainty: not a bear market, but not a straight-up bull either, and he wants to give the market breathing room to find clarity.

AI-trade capitulation looks like a near-term bottom; Citadel absorbed a forced unwind and semis bounced off channel lows. Value-to-growth rotation may be reversing as money flows back from staples and healthcare into semiconductors and data centers. The US dollar's post-FOMC double-top breakdown removes a headwind, giving gold and silver room to test support levels. Copper price trades near highs while copper miners (FCX, SCCO, HBM) lag the metal, capping the bull case until growth returns. Traders watch the daily 50-MA and 8/21 EMA crossover to confirm whether rebounds are real trend changes or just bounces.

TG Watkins – Technicals on: Tech, Biotech, Housing, Cryptos, Gold, Copper, Critical Minerals, & Oil

• Top takeaway TG argues the AI/chip trade got too overbought to offer good long-side risk-reward, and profits are rotating into laggards such as financials, biotech, and housing.
• He expects the Fed to hold rates neutral rather than hike, with cuts later, and stays bullish TLT as the play on lower rates.
• In crypto and precious metals he so far only trusts bounces within downtrends, watching whether Bitcoin can get and stay above its daily 50 moving average for a real trend change.
• He called oil short around late May/early June with a long-airlines pairs trade that worked out, and now sees the oil downtrend as stretched enough to bounce.
• His support framework for extended moves: the hourly 50 moving average first, then the daily 21, then the daily 50.

Gold and silver show only oversold bounces inside downtrends; guest TG Watkins wants support confirmed before calling precious metals higher. Copper has held up better than precious metals but trades rangebound; Watkins stepped aside from Taseko and Southern Copper until a breakout confirms direction. Critical minerals ran too far in 2026; the REMX rare-earth ETF hit 2022 resistance and Albemarle only now reached its 50-week average. Oil looks technically oversold after the US-Iran MOU ended the hot war, but Watkins still sees the trend lower with bounces possible. Rotation out of extended mega-cap tech into financials, biotech, housing, and bonds drives markets; Watkins says the AI chip trade needs to digest.

TG Watkins - Technical Outlook: US Market Strength, Small Caps, Crypto, Metals

• Top takeaway The guest argues the market is broadening out beyond mega-cap tech, pointing to new all-time highs in the equal-weight RSP plus strength in IWM, MDY, XLF and biotech ETFs like ARKG as evidence money is rotating rather than leaving.
• He makes a contrarian rates call: TLT is putting in a bottoming pattern and going higher, so market and federal interest rates are not going up near term, which supports homebuilders, biotech and consumer stocks alongside his call for oil to come down.
• He remains bullish long term, saying this rally is built on real companies like OpenAI, SpaceX and the hyperscalers rather than dot-com-era hype, though he expects pullbacks and corrections along the way.
• On crypto he is frustrated: he has pinpointed three successive lows in Bitcoin and Ethereum only to see them break lower, and he watches Coinbase around the 150 level, warning that if crypto is the last sector to rally it could mark the eventual blow-off top.
• On gold and silver he stays non-committal: the double bottom failed, the recent bounce has not yet turned into an uptrend, and he is watching silver's weekly 50 and a GLD trendline from the October 2025 high to see if major support is found.

The rally is broadening beyond mega-cap tech, with small caps, the equal-weight S&P and financials confirming underlying market strength. A bottoming pattern in long-duration Treasuries (TLT) suggests interest rates have topped, a tailwind for homebuilders, biotechs and consumer stocks. Former crypto miners pivoted to AI power generation are performing well, while Bitcoin and Ethereum keep printing lower lows without confirmation. Gold and silver bounced off weekly moving averages but have not confirmed an uptrend; copper's steady strength stands in sharp contrast. The guest argues big technology pullbacks look like healthy resets, and the bull market rests on real earnings rather than dot-com-style speculation.

TG Watkins - Market Realism vs. Narrative: Charts On Gold, Silver GDX, Copper, Tech, USD

Gold and silver are consolidating at critical moving averages, while copper shows undeniable structural strength driven by underlying demand. S&P 500 equal-weight breakout to all-time highs reveals healthier, broader market breadth than bearish macro headlines suggest. Technical divergence between airline stocks and crude oil presents a compelling pairs-trade opportunity for savvy investors.

TG Watkins - Small Caps, Crypto, Software Stocks, Precious Metals, Critical Minerals

Capital is rotating from overbought mega-cap tech and semiconductors into overlooked sectors like small caps, software, and critical minerals. Technical analysis suggests Bitcoin and Ethereum have established definitive support floors, creating potential buying opportunities for crypto miners. Uranium and lithium technical flags indicate the commodity super-cycle remains intact, while precious metals experience healthy consolidation.

TG Watkins - Navigating the Metals Meltdown: Technical Indicators and Market Vibe Shifts

• Top takeaway The guest went defensive last week — his alerts started firing Thursday as MSTR, IBIT, BMNR, Ethereum and many small caps broke down, and he expects the market may need a downside reset before clearer setups emerge.
• He flagged his Moxie momentum indicator on the SPX as below zero for three months even while price held above the daily 50, which he calls a warning sign.
• On metals, his early-warning signal was an unusual volume spike into the inverse silver ETF (ZSL) and the inverse gold ETF (GLL/GDXD) the week before Friday's historic crash — what he calls his 'detective' footprint method.
• He thinks precious metals and copper will likely consolidate for weeks before the next move and that last week's drop was the biggest in silver/gold since the 1980s.
• He splits crypto-related names into three buckets — pure miners (MARA underperforming), AI/power pivots (Hut, Iris, Cipher, TeraWulf doing well), and digital-asset treasuries (MSTR, BMNR) — and warns against trading them as one group.

Sudden volume in inverse leveraged ETFs — funds that gain when a commodity falls — can flag the end of a parabolic run. Vertical price action across silver, gold, and copper set up last week's historic precious-metals selloff, with silver falling about 40% in a day. Uranium and rare-earth miners such as UEC, UUUU, and USAR failed to decouple from broader metals weakness, forming clean double tops. Bitcoin miners now split into three categories — pure miners, AI power pivots, and digital-asset treasuries — each moving independently. Cross-asset breakdowns across crypto, semiconductors, and small caps pushed the guest into a defensive posture ahead of the metals crash.

TG Watkins - Trading the Trump Trend and Parabolic Precious Metals

• Top takeaway The guest argues early 2026 is a healthy market because laggards and small caps (MDY, RSP, IWM) are leading while mega caps and FANG stall, and he expects a strong year for things outside tech — that is why he focuses on small caps.
• He ties the move to falling cost of capital: Fed dovishness, Trump's one-year depreciation tax incentive, and administration growth policies are all, in his view, easing conditions for small caps and homebuilders without a recession yet visible.
• He had been building a campaign on XHB and NLY for weeks, stayed long through Trump's headline that corporations should not buy single-family homes, and made money the very next day when the stocks ripped — he credits his proprietary volume-footprint indicators and process for spotting the move in advance.
• On silver's parabolic run from roughly $45 to about $77 on SLV, he cites a clean October-November trendline breakout, daily 21 and 50 pullback entries, and the hourly 50 SMA as the trend signal, but he cautions that parabolic moves have no nearby support and can reverse sharply.
• He sees gold as more forgiving than silver because it advances in stair steps; the topping signal he watches for is a double-top on the monthly chart and whether price breaks to new highs or instead breaks down — that is, in his view, when a gold trade ends.

Leadership in early 2026 is shifting from mega-cap tech to small caps, mid-caps, and equal-weight indices, TG Watkins argues. Silver's run from $50 to over $80 in a month is a textbook parabolic move that can end in a sharp reversal. Gold's trend-line breakout has held through pullbacks, but silver-style parabolic tops often reverse hard without nearby support. Bitcoin and Ethereum may be carving out a double bottom after their 2025 drawdown, with volume starting to return. Even pro-business policy can't override the charts: drawdowns happen regardless of narrative tailwinds, the guest cautions.