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TG Watkins - Trading the Trump Trend and Parabolic Precious Metals

The KE Report Jan 12, 2026

Summary

Leadership in early 2026 is shifting from mega-cap tech to small caps, mid-caps, and equal-weight indices, TG Watkins argues.

Silver's run from $50 to over $80 in a month is a textbook parabolic move that can end in a sharp reversal.

Gold's trend-line breakout has held through pullbacks, but silver-style parabolic tops often reverse hard without nearby support.

Bitcoin and Ethereum may be carving out a double bottom after their 2025 drawdown, with volume starting to return.

Even pro-business policy can't override the charts: drawdowns happen regardless of narrative tailwinds, the guest cautions.

TG Watkins's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The guest argues early 2026 is a healthy market because laggards and small caps (MDY, RSP, IWM) are leading while mega caps and FANG stall, and he expects a strong year for things outside tech — that is why he focuses on small caps.
  • He ties the move to falling cost of capital: Fed dovishness, Trump's one-year depreciation tax incentive, and administration growth policies are all, in his view, easing conditions for small caps and homebuilders without a recession yet visible.
  • He had been building a campaign on XHB and NLY for weeks, stayed long through Trump's headline that corporations should not buy single-family homes, and made money the very next day when the stocks ripped — he credits his proprietary volume-footprint indicators and process for spotting the move in advance.
  • On silver's parabolic run from roughly $45 to about $77 on SLV, he cites a clean October-November trendline breakout, daily 21 and 50 pullback entries, and the hourly 50 SMA as the trend signal, but he cautions that parabolic moves have no nearby support and can reverse sharply.
  • He sees gold as more forgiving than silver because it advances in stair steps; the topping signal he watches for is a double-top on the monthly chart and whether price breaks to new highs or instead breaks down — that is, in his view, when a gold trade ends.