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The AI Boom Is Creating a Commodity Supercycle | Tavi Costa

Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® Jun 17, 2026

Summary

Tavi Costa argues the AI data-center build-out needs power plants, transmission lines and industrial materials, setting up a commodity supercycle.

He expects governments to keep funding AI infrastructure because countries treat technological leadership as economic and national-security survival.

Deglobalization and reshoring of manufacturing after COVID could add a second wave of electricity demand on top of the AI boom.

He sees copper as the most important constraint: essential for data centers, grids and electrification, yet underappreciated by investors.

He favors materials, energy, engineering, cement and steel businesses as likely beneficiaries while capital crowds into smaller AI markets.

Adam Taggart's takeaways

  • Top takeaway As host, Adam Taggart frames the episode around whether the AI boom is leading to a commodity super boom and presses the guest on the scale of AI-related capex spending.
  • He summarizes the guest's message as there being significant opportunity in the big fundamental sectors, advising viewers not to get distracted by the esoteric.

Tavi Costa's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Tavi Costa argues the AI build-out is leading to a commodity super boom, since data centers, electrical transmission lines, and power stations all require real-world materials and infrastructure.
  • He contends governments will step in to sustain AI investment rather than letting companies pare it back, because countries view the technology arms race as critical to economic survival.
  • He links the deglobalization and onshoring trend intensified after COVID to a coming surge in US electricity consumption, noting US power demand has been flat for decades while China's has grown as the world's manufacturing plant.
  • He identifies materials, energy, and infrastructure-related businesses such as engineering firms, cement firms, and steel producers as the key investment pillars capital allocators should watch, estimating the equivalent of at least another US economy's worth of electricity demand added in the next few years.
  • He worries investors are spending time, effort, and capital on smaller markets that are not as relevant as copper, which he expects to be a huge problem in the near future.