The Real Oil Crisis Hasn't Started Yet
Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® Jul 24, 2026
Summary
Crude already en route, including Iranian barrels, is buffering today's market, so the worst supply shock arrives only after a lag.
China's command-economy curbs on oil use quietly prevented a worse shock; whether Beijing keeps suppressing demand is the biggest price wildcard.
Refining is the overlooked bottleneck: strikes on Russian refineries keep gasoline and diesel expensive even as crude pulls back.
Global strategic petroleum reserves (government emergency stockpiles) sit near low levels, leaving little room to offset a prolonged supply disruption.
Base case is elevated prices slowly declining; renewed Chinese imports, drained reserves, or destroyed infrastructure would drive them sharply higher.
Adam Taggart's takeaways
- Top takeaway Taggart notes the feared $150-200/barrel oil spike and stagflationary recession never materialized - prices fell fast after the war began - but oil is rising again as strait traffic stays compromised, so Trump's 'sink like a stone' call may still prove right.
- He stresses that strategic petroleum reserves around the globe are very low as of July 2026, leaving the market with less of a backstop.
- He frames the situation as a possible 'round two' of the oil crisis and asks where prices head from here.
Ryan Bohl's takeaways
- Top takeaway Bohl's base case is elevated oil prices with only a slow climb-down if geopolitical conditions stabilize.
- He argues crude already on the water, including Iranian oil shipped under the MOU, keeps arriving and creates a buffer that delays the impact of supply disruptions.
- He says China's command-economy curbs on oil use were a major reason the crisis wasn't worse, and whether Beijing keeps that adaptation is the key open question for demand.
- He flags Ukraine's attacks on Russian refining capacity as the part of the market that hasn't recovered - refining costs stay elevated, so gasoline prices haven't fallen with crude, and buyers like India would purchase US refined products at elevated prices.
- He sees three triggers for a much faster, longer price rise: China resuming oil imports, strategic reserves hitting a critical level, or supply destruction of pipelines and refineries in Russia or the Gulf.