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The Silver Bull Market Is Just Getting Started - Here’s Why

VRIC Media Jul 16, 2026

Summary

Kootenay Silver now develops two Mexican silver projects after a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) on La Cigarra showed $763 million after-tax NPV at $50 silver.

AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost - what it really costs to produce an ounce) is forecast below $19, with payback under two years at La Cigarra.

The guest argues silver is forming a new price band several times higher than the mid-$20s range it occupied for years.

A 7,000-metre fall drill program targets the undrilled gap between two deposits, a low-cost path to 10 to 20 million more ounces by year end.

Columba's high-grade inferred resource is being drilled toward 100 million ounces, funded by about $34 million in cash.

Key points on Kootenay Silver Inc

  • The PEA released in mid-2026 on La Cigarra is what moves Kootenay from explorer to developer: at the banks' $50/oz forward silver price the study shows a $763 million after-tax NPV and a 41% after-tax IRR, rising to about $1.2 billion NPV at $65/oz, per the CEO on the July 2026 interview.
  • La Cigarra's economics are a 14-year initial mine life averaging about 4.5 million ounces of silver a year, more than 6 million ounces a year in the first five years, roughly $18-20 per ounce all-in sustaining cost, and just under 64 million payable ounces.
  • Capital cost is about $332 million including more than $50 million of contingency, which the CEO calls a sensible buffer because PEA-to-PFS costs tend to inflate, producing an after-tax payback of just under two years.
  • A fall 2026 drill program of about 7,000 meters within a budgeted 10,000 meters costing just over $3 million targets the gap between the Sangrigoria and Las Carolinas pits, which sits inside the existing pit shell and was never drilled; the CEO sees potential for 10-20 million ounces there and expects an answer by year end, with about $34 million in the treasury.
  • Columba in the same Chihuahua district is being expanded by roughly 60,000 meters of drilling toward 100 million ounces from a high-grade inferred resource above 280 grams per tonne; the CEO says the 100 million target is aspirational, a resource update is due around the end of 2026 into Q1 2027, and the two projects are to carry separate strategies such as building, a joint venture or a sale.

Jay Martin's takeaways

  • Top takeaway He frames the interview as a scorecard: he had the CEO on the show about six months earlier, became a shareholder, and says the company delivered the milestones it set out then, so he now treats Kootenay as a development company rather than an explorer.
  • He argues the market has not yet priced in the La Cigarra PEA, pointing to the summer slowdown, attention pulled toward events in the Middle East, and investors knowing Kootenay only as the Columba story.
  • He singles out the PEA headline numbers as what makes the asset interesting, roughly $19 per ounce all-in sustaining cost, a 14-year mine life, reasonable capital and a sub-two-year payback, and says he likes having two projects advancing at once because they will effectively race each other.
  • He presses on discipline and affordability rather than geology, asking about security in Mexico, whether about $34 million in the bank funds both programs for at least 18 months, and saying what he values is knowing each milestone, its cost and whether the company can afford it.
  • His own market view is that metals should regain attention because governments in developed and non-developed nations are forming strategies to bring capital to their natural resource industries and central bank gold buying is not a short-term decision, which he calls a tectonic shift; he wants to return in December or January for results.

James McDonald's takeaways

  • Top takeaway His central call is that the silver bull market has only just started: he frames the December-to-February surge as the first spike of a long, multi-year bull market comparable to 2002-2012, and says the eventual base will sit far above the old $18-26 band, which is why he moved the parked Chihuahua projects forward once silver passed $30 in January.
  • On the La Cigarra PEA he stresses the study is run at a $50/oz silver price he considers very conservative, and points to the 14-year mine life, average annual production of about 4.5 million ounces, roughly $332 million of capital including a large contingency, and an after-tax payback of just under two years.
  • His next catalyst is a fall drill program of about 7,000 meters, budgeted within 10,000 meters for just over $3 million, to test the lightly drilled gap between the Sangrigoria and Las Carolinas pits inside the existing pit shell; he expects the answer by year end and a pre-feasibility study launched in 2027.
  • On Columba he is running about 60,000 meters of expansion drilling aimed at pushing the resource toward 100 million ounces, and argues that number is not required because his in-house desktop studies may already show positive economics below it; the resource update is expected around the end of 2026 into early 2027.
  • On risk and funding he says the company has been in Mexico for 25 years with an almost entirely Mexican staff and only works in areas he assesses as stable and safe, and that because Kootenay generates no revenue it must keep watching the market for its next financing even though about $34 million in cash covers both programs for at least 18 months.

Jim McDonald's takeaways

  • Top takeaway His central call is that the silver bull market has only just started: he frames the December-to-February surge as the first spike of a long, multi-year bull market comparable to 2002-2012, and says the eventual base will sit far above the old $18-26 band, which is why he moved the parked Chihuahua projects forward once silver passed $30 in January.
  • On the La Cigarra PEA he stresses the study is run at a $50/oz silver price he considers very conservative, and points to the 14-year mine life, average annual production of about 4.5 million ounces, roughly $332 million of capital including a large contingency, and an after-tax payback of just under two years.
  • His next catalyst is a fall drill program of about 7,000 meters, budgeted within 10,000 meters for just over $3 million, to test the lightly drilled gap between the Sangrigoria and Las Carolinas pits inside the existing pit shell; he expects the answer by year end and a pre-feasibility study launched in 2027.
  • On Columba he is running about 60,000 meters of expansion drilling aimed at pushing the resource toward 100 million ounces, and argues that number is not required because his in-house desktop studies may already show positive economics below it; the resource update is expected around the end of 2026 into early 2027.
  • On risk and funding he says the company has been in Mexico for 25 years with an almost entirely Mexican staff and only works in areas he assesses as stable and safe, and that because Kootenay generates no revenue it must keep watching the market for its next financing even though about $34 million in cash covers both programs for at least 18 months.