The Stock Market Has An OpenAI & Anthropic Problem
Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® Aug 18, 2026
Summary
Ed Zitron argues Microsoft, Google, Amazon revenue growth increasingly depends on OpenAI and Anthropic spending $200B+ on compute.
Analyst estimates cited point to 76% of Microsoft's revenue growth through 2028 tied to OpenAI compute spend.
UBS estimates 48% of Google Cloud revenue by 2027 could come from OpenAI and Anthropic.
Slowed AI capex, Ed warns, cascades from hyperscalers through Nvidia to Taiwanese ODMs and exposed Japanese banks.
Ed argues AI need not fail technologically — overbuilt capacity of roughly 10x could trigger a 50% market drawdown.
Adam Taggart's takeaways
- Top takeaway Host Adam Taggart interviews Ed Zitron and asks the closing question about whether markets could fall 50% or more if the AI compute thesis breaks
Ed Zitron's takeaways
- Top takeaway The guest argues future hyperscaler revenue growth is contingent on OpenAI and Anthropic's ability to spend massively on compute - over $200 billion in 2027 alone, and possibly $300-400 billion beyond that
- The guest believes OpenAI and Anthropic would need to be the size of Microsoft and Google by 2030 and become profitable to sustain the current setup - and even then, capacity is overbuilt by roughly 10x
- The guest estimates markets could be cut by at least 50% if the AI compute thesis breaks
- The guest sees a cataclysmic chain: less GPU spending hurts Nvidia, which in turn hurts ODMs like Foxconn and the Taiwanese stock market, with knock-on effects on US markets
- The guest views current AI spending as essentially a 'kick the can' exercise to keep valuations aloft