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The World Is Relearning Why Commodities Matter | Kai Hoffmann - Soar Financially

The Deep Dive Jun 18, 2026

Summary

Kai Hoffmann argues the US-Iran peace deal is not done: oil below $80 contradicts market euphoria, and trust between the West and Iran remains unresolved.

The SpaceX IPO is sucking up risk capital that junior mining needs, with index inclusion forcing funds to buy at extreme valuations.

Germany's long stagnation and high energy costs are part of a slow shift pushing mining and exploration back into political favor in Europe.

Central banks keep buying gold, and Turkey's 118-ton sale shows gold (a metal held as a reserve asset) working as monetary insurance when trust fades.

Hoffmann expects much higher commodity prices to be the wake-up call that changes public disdain for mining.

Steve Hyland's takeaways

  • Top takeaway As host, Steve Hyland frames the conversation around the potential US-Iran deal, the SpaceX IPO and its extreme valuation, and whether the world is heading toward a major repricing of commodities.

Kai Hoffmann's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Argues the US-Iran 'fog of war' is still thick: he sees the peace MOU as not finalized, says both sides are pushing agendas, warns Israel's exclusion from the deal could derail it, and expects the conflict could resurface within about a year of the US midterms.
  • On the SpaceX IPO he is skeptical of the valuation — trading at $216.32 versus a $135 debut for a roughly $2.85 trillion market cap — expects index inclusion buying into the S&P 500, and worries big space-sector IPOs are sucking up the limited risk capital that junior mining depends on.
  • Describes Germany as stuck: roughly six years of recession with zero growth, flat wages, high energy costs and industries like Bosch moving jobs abroad, though he is hopeful thanks to a ~68-69% debt-to-GDP ratio and a lifted debt brake, while fearing Germany's solvency will backstop Euro bonds for weaker countries like France and Italy.
  • Believes the world is waking up to the importance of commodities and mining — with exploration resuming in Germany, France and Poland — and that only much higher prices will fix society's disdain for mining.
  • Views precious metals as monetary insurance, citing central bank gold buying and Turkey's sale of 118 tons of gold to stabilize its currency as proof gold acts as the ultimate liquidity provider.