“This Will Be Very Serious”: Macleod Warns of Global Logistics Shock
Summary
Diesel, ship bunker, and kerosene shortages threaten a seizure of global logistics, pushing essential prices sharply higher while economies slide toward recession.
Gulf producers risk going bust as oil sales stop: Saudi debt-to-GDP could soar from about 33 percent toward 100 percent, inviting civil unrest.
Foreign demand for US Treasuries is fading just as Washington refinances roughly 9-10 trillion dollars, risking a debt trap of ever-higher yields.
Central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and Middle East wealth are accumulating gold, treating currencies as credit risk and bullion as the counterparty-free refuge.
Japan faces a 1970s-style inflation shock from lost Middle East energy, pushing its pension funds and insurers to sell US Treasuries for JGBs.
Alasdair Macleod's takeaways
- Top takeaway Warns shortages of diesel, ship bunkers, and kerosene could seize global logistics, driving essential-goods prices sharply higher as economies slump into recession.
- Argues fading foreign demand for US Treasuries collides with a roughly 9-10 trillion dollar refinancing wall, risking a debt trap where higher yields beget higher yields.
- Says central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and wealthy Middle East families are accumulating gold as fiat currencies' counterparty and credit risk builds.
- Warns Japan faces a 1970s-style inflation shock from lost Middle East energy, forcing its pension funds and insurers to sell US Treasuries and buy JGBs.
- Argues China has positioned itself to put the yuan on a gold exchange standard at a moment of its choosing, and dismisses talk of a new BRICS currency.
Dunagun Kaiser's takeaways
- Top takeaway Interviews Macleod on Middle East escalation, gold and silver market support, and mounting US Treasury funding pressure.
Kaiser Johnson's takeaways
- Top takeaway Presents the Myles Franklin weekly bullion specials for September 21-28, 2026: Valcambi 1-gram gold bars at $19.99 over melt and 100-ounce Engelhard or Johnson Matthey silver bars at $2.25 over spot.