Skip to main content

Weekend Show - Mike Larson & Robert Sinn - Q3 Market Outlook, Energy Shifts, and Critical Minerals

The KE Report Jul 4, 2026

Summary

Mike Larson argues the H1 2026 rotation out of megacap tech is healthy, and favors diversifying into energy, industrials, and materials.

Generalist money has rotated from precious metals into critical minerals as governments treat mineral supply chains as national security, a shift both expect to last.

Robert Sinn sees gold's quick rejection below $4,000 and extreme bearish sentiment as marking a tradable low, with miners priced for far worse.

Q2 earnings arrive with near-record producer margins against depressed expectations, which Sinn argues sets up senior miners for an upside re-rating.

Post-July 4 seasonality plus cashed-up juniors rushing drill results could fuel a summer rally; Sinn picks platinum as his second-half wildcard.

Key points on Agnico Eagle Mines

  • Robert Sinn says Agnico Eagle is a cash cow even with gold at $3,900-$4,000/oz — strong balance sheet and large share buybacks — and argues market expectations are so low going into Q2 earnings that the shares are set up for an upside rerating.
  • He flags $150 on the NYSE listing as a major support level, noting AEM bounced off it and traded up just over 2% on the July 1 recording day.
  • He estimates Agnico's all-in costs are still under roughly $1,500/oz, possibly under $1,400, keeping margins thick at current gold prices.
  • On portfolio management, he says he would 100% average down into AEM at about the $150 support level, assuming the investor has the cash and risk tolerance for it.

Key points on Newmont

  • Robert Sinn puts Newmont in the same cash-cow camp as Agnico — strong balance sheets and buybacks even with gold at $3,900-$4,000/oz — and says the market is bracing for a downside surprise, which sets up an upside rerating at Q2 earnings.
  • He calls the $92-$94 zone on the NYSE listing big support, with the stock testing that level as Q2 ended.
  • He pegs Newmont's all-in cost at about $1,800/oz, so margins stay thick even at $4,000 gold.
  • He says if he had bought Newmont at $110, he would definitely be averaging down at $94.

Key points on Endurance Gold Corp

  • Robert Sinn cites Endurance Gold's high-grade intercept — above 7 g/t over roughly 14-15 metres, released the week before the July 1 recording — as an example of good junior news that still got sold off in June's risk-off tape.

Mike Larson's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Mike Larson's first-half takeaway: technology led all S&P 500 sectors in H1 2026 (XLK up about 28%) with energy second (XLE just under 20%), and the late-half rotation out of AI and chip names into laggards is a healthy broadening he hopes continues.
  • He expects the Fed to hike once, at most twice, before the end of 2026 and thinks that is already priced in — he is not worried about a rampant tightening cycle and wouldn't be surprised if peak Fed fear is behind us.
  • On energy, he says the round trip is done: whether you missed the run or took profits, now is the time to add — favoring dividend payers, oilfield services that will restart shut-in production, and midstream yield — because he doesn't believe oil slides to $50.
  • He observes generalist interest has rotated from precious metals into critical minerals — REMX and LIT have outshone gold and silver this year — a shift he thinks has legs because it is driven by national security and supply-chain policy, not just politics.
  • He is not calling a top: respected investors see the cycle running a couple more innings, well into 2027, though he is somewhat more conservative — and he advises diversifying into laggards like energy, metals, industrials and materials for the second half.

Kevin Warsh's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Larson says months ago the market bet Kevin Warsh would be a lapdog Fed chair under Trump's pressure, but Warsh hasn't cut into sticky inflation — and with a split committee, the dollar's just-under-3% year-to-date gain owes a lot to him.
  • Larson is not afraid Warsh goes full hawk and tanks the market by hiking; he frames Warsh's expected path as about one hike, at most two, before year-end 2026.

Robert Sinn's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Robert Sinn sees mounting signs of a tradable low in gold to start Q3 2026: repeated breaks under $4,000 that snapped back within the hour, the Daily Sentiment Index at 10, and zero breadth in gold miners — with $3,955 possibly the low on the August contract.
  • He argues gold miners are priced for gold 10-20% below spot, so as long as gold keeps treading water around $4,000 he expects miners to start outperforming again later in the summer, with Q2 earnings as the catalyst.
  • He notes gold's Q2 2026 quarterly candlestick was the most bearish in several years (at least since 2020), which crushed sentiment — yet even in a cyclical bear, a short squeeze could rally gold to $4,300-$4,400 before any retest of the low.
  • On juniors, he says seasonality turns favorable after the July 4 holiday and cashed-up companies rush out good drill results — a potential 'perfect storm' for a rally into August — but a company with no news by US Thanksgiving is a warning sign.
  • His boldest second-half call is platinum: he thinks it is very cheap, a rise of about 50% would not be a stretch, and he sees it trading back above $2,000 and possibly reaching $2,500 by year-end 2026.

Shad Markowitz's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Host Shad Markowitz points out gold producers earned about their second-fattest margins ever in Q2 2026 (behind only Q1) even as their shares collapsed, and asks whether strong Q2 earnings can lift the sector out of the summer doldrums.
  • He frames the metals drawdown as a cyclical bear inside a longer secular bull: gold down roughly 30% and silver nearly 50% in a few months, with many individual equities down 40-60%.
  • He highlights that solid junior news in June — Andina Copper's porphyry intercept and Endurance Gold's high-grade hit — was sold into risk-off conditions, and probes whether the coming flood of news flow will finally start to matter.
  • He frames both interviews around a 'market halftime,' noting the rotation out of mega-cap tech into other sectors and asking whether record IPOs like SpaceX and Anthropic signal top-of-cycle behavior.

Michael Saylor's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The host notes Michael Saylor — probably the biggest whale of the Bitcoin space, famous for saying never sell Bitcoin — has finally been selling some Bitcoin as the crypto trade falls out of favor.