What's Behind the GOLD Crash? 'All the Fundamentals Still VERY Strong'

Commodity Culture Jul 17, 2026

Summary

Robert Eckford calls gold's slide below $4,000 a buying opportunity, saying the pullback is healthy and the fundamentals behind it are very strong.

Central banks bought about 244 tons in Q1, 17% more than Q4, and are shifting out of dollars into gold.

War-driven inflation, not rate hikes, should send investors back to gold as the liquid holding that outpaces rising prices.

Gold equities still lag the metal, with Newmont's multiple compressed toward six times earnings despite a 30-year mine life.

Rua Gold targets a 2027 build at Auld Creek after a positive PEA, funded by a $33 million raise from institutional holders.

Citing Newmont as the top of the value chain, the guest says it traded at eight to ten times earnings and is probably closer to six or seven times after the pullback, while mining equities still lag the metal.

Oceanagold's oldest open pit, the Wahi mine, has produced about 10 million ounces and the surrounding town was built around it, which the guest uses as evidence the district is proven.
Its North Wahi project, about 1.5 million ounces at 18 grams per tonne, was permitted in 114 days under the fast-track process, which the guest cites as proof the New Zealand regime works.
Oceanagold had to drop the adjacent Glamorgan ground while applying for that permit, and the guest says Rua Gold picked it up from them in the process.

The guest says the positive PEA for the Old Creek project is economic on only the first 200 metres of depth, with start-of-mine capex of about $130 million and a study value of about $50 million, which he argues already pays for the plant before any further ounces are added.
A 43-101 issued in February 2026 reported about 200,000 ounces of indicated and inferred resource at roughly 4.5 to 5 grams per tonne, plus around 10,000 tonnes of antimony as a byproduct.
He targets a mine permit submission by the end of October 2026 and a preliminary feasibility study in November 2026, then construction starting around June to July 2027 with cash flowing from a starter mine by mid-2028.
The economics are modelled on a gold price of $3,300, and he frames the 20,000-metre drill program as still expanding the deposit, with mineralisation now reaching about 500 metres depth and 1,200 metres along strike.
He says a $33 million January 2026 raise priced at $1.10 funds the drilling, study and permitting through the year and leaves roughly $15 million in the bank in Q1 2027, ahead of a possible antimony offtake plus debt and equity for the build.

Top takeaway The guest credits the company's geologist on the ground, Simon Henderson, with the discovery behind the adjacent Wahi deposit and identifies him as the person excited about the undrilled North Island ground.
Henderson's decision to take the adjacent tenement after it was dropped, for about $4,000, is the basis for the company's claim that the project carries little cost and mostly upside.

Top takeaway Calling the fall in gold from its highs a healthy pullback rather than a broken trend, he argues the fundamentals are still very strong and says he is buying gold equities, Rua Gold included, at what he sees as discounted prices.
He expects an extended Iran war to keep pushing fuel costs and inflation higher while central banks cannot lift rates to offset it, which he argues leaves holding gold as the only way to preserve value.
He reads central bank buying of about 244 tonnes in Q1 2026, running ahead of the prior two quarters, as a structural shift away from the US dollar that will not reverse.
He does not expect gold equities to catch up to the metal and is relaxed about it, arguing depressed valuations leave room for the consolidation and M&A the sector needs.
Drawing on work in Australia, the DRC and South America, he warns that commodity booms invite higher taxes and a bigger state take, so he tells investors to be comfortable with the jurisdiction they back.