Why North American Energy Deserves A Larger Place In Your Portfolio

Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® Jul 30, 2026

Summary

Rick Rule argues energy buyers diversifying away from Persian Gulf supply risk will channel incremental demand to North American producers.

Exxon is Rule's premier long-term holding, backed by a 30-year capital-discipline record and the 19-billion-barrel Guyana discovery.

Chevron offers more upside, while Occidental Petroleum carries balance-sheet risk from its debt-heavy Anadarko takeover.

Rule expects the US natural gas glut (excess supply) to disappear within two to three years, favoring Devon and EQT.

Canada may offer the most alpha (returns above the market), but Rule warns political risk under an anti-hydrocarbon government remains.

Top takeaway The guest says Mark Carney remains anti-hydrocarbon even though he understands oil and gas revenue matters for his spending plans, calling this a real political risk for Canadian energy investment.
He notes Carney, unlike his predecessor, can add and subtract, and says investors who believe reality will bring him into line could find a lot of opportunity in Canada.

Top takeaway The speaker argues energy portfolios should be overweight the United States and Canada for the next 10 years, citing proven economics, technological dominance, and a US administration no longer hostile to the oil industry.
He lays out a risk ladder: Exxon for most investors, Chevron for those taking a little more risk, and Occidental for those accepting balance-sheet risk.
He expects the US gas glut to end in roughly two to two-and-a-half years from July 2026 and points to Devon and Equitable (EQT) as the alpha plays.
He sees buyers distrusting Gulf supply and cutting reliance on it, shifting incremental demand toward North American producers.
He frames Canada as the higher-alpha tier but warns of real political risk under Mark Carney, who he calls still anti-hydrocarbon.

Top takeaway The guest invokes Buffett's courage in buying Occidental, arguing the price Buffett paid matters less than the underinvestment-driven payoff expected about five years out.