Why the S&P and Nasdaq Look More Vulnerable
VRIC Media Jul 26, 2026
Summary
Todd Horwitz argues that panic money leaves the S&P 500 for the Dow first, before a broadening selloff drags all indices lower.
He expects the S&P and Nasdaq to fall faster than the Dow and Russell once a selloff takes hold.
He contrasts the Dow's futures value (about $270,000) with the S&P's ($380,000), a spread of roughly $110,000.
He points to 2008, when the Dow was worth more than the S&P at the market bottom, as precedent.
Todd Bubba Horwitz's takeaways
- Top takeaway Horwitz argues that in a sell-off the S&P and Nasdaq would fall faster than the Dow and the Russell, making them the more vulnerable indexes as of July 2026.
- He says that when panic hits, money comes out of the S&P and moves to the Dow first before everything falls together, and he dismisses the risk-on/risk-off trade as nonsense.
- He compares current futures values: the Dow contract worth about $270,000 versus the S&P at about $380,000, a spread of roughly $110,000.
- He recalls that at the 2008 market bottom the Dow was actually worth more than the S&P.