Adam Taggart

Value Stocks Set To Outperform Tech Into The End Of Year? | Lance Roberts

Lance Roberts argues a year-end rally is more likely than not, led by beaten-down value and small-cap stocks rather than mega-cap tech. Roberts says bond yields near 5% now cover over half of many investors' required returns, making bonds worth owning for income, stability, and principal protection. He contends debts and deficits are disinflationary, so they pressure interest rates lower over time rather than driving yields permanently higher. On municipal bonds (state and local government debt), Roberts judges value by tax-equivalent yield — what a taxable bond must pay to match it. Both speakers see rising yields as constructive: savers finally earn real returns, and higher capital costs weed out unproductive investment.

AI Bubble + Rising Rates = Time For Caution | Jim Iuorio

• Top takeaway The host argues AI-driven job displacement could move faster than the economy can repurpose workers, especially once robotics joins smart software, and warns the resulting social crisis could cost more than the technology saves; he calls UBI a non-solution.
• He warns that if the AI complex stumbles, the economy takes a one-two punch: the wealth effect from AI stock gains and the direct AI capex spending flowing into the economy would dry up together.
• He calls market concentration scary: citing a headline that Micron and Nvidia alone will deliver a third of Q3 earnings growth, he says the market is revolving around a thinner and thinner axis, and anything happening to that axis means a material correction.
• He flags that retail equity exposure is about as high as it has ever been and rises with age cohorts, the opposite of what it should be for people approaching or in retirement.

Jim Iuorio argues the AI mania and rising 10-year yields are a double threat: stay invested, but hedge with puts. He sees a soft cap near 5.5% on the 10-year yield, since Fed long-bond buying would revive the debasement trade in gold and silver. Seven stocks at 35% of the S&P and a low VIX (the market's fear gauge) precede big corrections, so he is carrying extra puts. He expects disinflation by the second half of 2027 as the oil shock fades and AI's deflationary productivity outweighs the data-center build-out. Still constructive on gold after trimming into January's spike, he watches France and Japan bond markets as the main contagion risk.

Stephanie Pomboy: The Higher Yields Go, The Higher The Odds The Market Cracks

Pomboy argues households raiding investment accounts to pay bills signal consumer distress like the pre-GFC housing bubble, not strength. Bond yields keep rising yet equities keep setting records; she hears deafening 1987 echoes and expects the market to crack under higher rates. Credit is cracking first: triple-C spreads top 1,000 basis points (deep-junk borrowing stress) and Oracle sits a notch above junk. She expects a sharp risk-off break rather than a slow slide, followed by a slower-than-expected Fed rescue and exploding deficits. The pair counsel matching portfolio risk to required returns and favor hard assets like gold as post-rescue inflation returns.

Pain Ahead For Markets As Interest Rates To Rise "For Generations To Come" | Chris Whalen

Whalen says the cheap-money era is over: the 10-year Treasury yield (the US government's 10-year borrowing cost) is heading toward 5.5% or higher. He is shorting consumer lenders because credit costs (banks' losses on bad loans) should rise as stretched households keep spending. Halving the federal deficit each year would lower yields and lift stocks, but he expects a bond-market crisis to force discipline first. He is repositioning into energy, gold, and silver, arguing central-bank buying and yuan-gold settlement are restoring gold as the chief reserve asset. He expects new Fed chair Kevin Warsh to stay hawkish until Treasury stress forces the Fed back into buying bonds.

ALERT: 2027 Will Be A "Disaster" For Both Stocks & Bonds | Michael Pento

• Top takeaway Taggart reports that Tom Hoenig, speaking at a private investor event, agreed with Pento's view that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is drawing a hard line — telling Congress to get its fiscal spending in order and that the Fed will no longer be its enabler.
• He called this special out-of-cycle session, as promised, the moment Pento's model shifted to neutral so the audience could hear the reasons in real time.
• He contributes the crowding-out argument that credit being issued by AI hyperscalers is now competing with Treasury debt, which Pento confirms belongs on the list of bond-market pressures.
• He supplies the comparison that Jerome Powell printed $200 billion of Fed credit over his final five months, against which Pento puts balance-sheet growth under Warsh at only about $15-20 billion since late May.
• He voices the counterarguments to Pento — that high yields may soon prove a buy and that AI investment could substantially boost growth — to draw out Pento's rebuttals on bonds and the 2027 outlook.

Michael Pento neutralized his portfolio — every long offset by a short — as his 12-point model flags 2027 as a likely disaster for stocks and bonds. He argues the Fed is deliberately pricking the debt-funded AI spending spree, which he says drives half of GDP growth and 80% of earnings growth. The bond market is fracturing: foreign buyers are abandoning Treasuries, the yen carry trade is dissolving, and high-yield spreads are widening as Treasury yields rise. Market breadth is already weak: over 70% of the S&P 500 is in a correction and 40% is down 30% — his definition of a crash. He expects any recession-driven rally in long bonds to fade fast, because deficits heading toward $6 trillion will force bond vigilantes to demand higher yields.

"If You're Worried About A Bear Market, Buy Bonds Now" | Lance Roberts

• Top takeaway Adam Taggart argues the headline indexes are sending a false signal of security: with the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.3% in the week to 3 October 2026, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are still sitting near record highs.
• He sets the test that frames the episode, asking whether anyone would have forecast record equity highs by late September 2026 with the 10-year up at 5.3%, from a starting point he puts at around 4.2% on 1 January. Most people, he says, would have expected the market to be suffering by then.
• He makes the case that the real news was not the weak payroll print but the 30 September PCE data revisions, which pulled the average rate of inflation down to 1.6% and landed below expectations. He describes that as good news.
• On his own account, now living in Nevada, which has no state income tax, he has asked his financial advisor to look into municipal bonds: buying munis leaves him facing only federal tax, so he describes the returns as effectively tax-free while locking in high yields. He notes he holds no account at Roberts' firm, because Roberts keeps a policy against mixing business with friendship.
• He presses the year-end deadline, noting that only 12 Fridays remain until Christmas as of early October 2026, and advises viewers to start with advisors now on tax-loss harvesting, required minimum distributions and retirement funding rather than leaving it to the last week of December.

Worried about a bear market? The guest's answer is today's bond yields, a rare chance to lock in real income. The guest argues rate hikes cannot fix an oil-driven supply shock; they only crush demand, buying disinflation with recession. Headline indexes hide the strain: equal-weight, small-cap and rate-sensitive sectors are already breaking with the 10-year near 5.3%. Weak payrolls look disinflationary to the guest: hiring and firing have stalled, leaving companies holding staff rather than expanding. The guest expects a rotation from growth into beaten-down value, utilities among the first sectors showing buyers.

Have Rising Bond Yields Just Killed The Bull Market In Stocks? | New Harbor Financial

No Living Investor Has Seen A Time Like This Before | Lawrence Lepard

Is It Becoming A Great Time For Income Investors? | Steven Bavaria

• Top takeaway The host's top point is that this may be the best entry point yet for income investors: with 2026 nearly over after four straight double-digit equity years, many above 20%, he says valuations look stretched on almost any historical measure, so the odds of another sustained run of 7-8% capital gains are low while credit sits on a rising-yield tailwind.
• He warns that the US investing public now carries more equity exposure than at any point in history, and that the exposure wrongly rises with age rather than falling, which matters most for the 45-and-over viewers close to retirement who would have little time to recover from a mean-reverting correction.
• He frames the key retirement danger as sequence of returns: pulling required 4-6% distributions from a mostly equity portfolio during down years permanently shrinks capital, whereas an income portfolio yielding 8-10% in cash lets you fund the same spending without ever selling the capital that produces it.
• He argues bond yields have already bottomed after 40 years of decline, from high-teens levels in the early 1980s to near zero, and that deficits and inflation point to the reverse over the next decades, making this a better backdrop for dependable growing income than the last 40 years were.
• He suggests an 18-year-old could take this approach to become a multimillionaire by their 50s on average returns of 8%, with far less volatility and a better chance of sleeping at night than betting everything on the S&P 500.

Higher yields help income investors: floating-rate loans and BDCs (business development companies) reprice within months, lifting cash income. For bond funds, skip the daily price and track net asset value returns, cash distributions, and whether capital is quietly eroding. Wide discounts to net asset value price in default rates far above history, the guest argues, which is why credit funds screen as bargains. For retirees drawing income, distributions that exceed total returns shrink the capital base, which the guest calls sequence-of-returns risk. He points to business development companies and private credit, plus closed-end funds from PIMCO and Eaton Vance, as current openings.

Market Starting To Crack Under High Bond Yields? | Michael Lebowitz

• Top takeaway His top point is the return and timing on AI investment: he frames the current earnings boom as largely balance-sheet money that hyperscalers are converting into compute, chips and data centers instead of cash flow, and asks when revenue actually shows up elsewhere in corporate America.
• On whether the Fed's tightening or the administration's growth push wins, he argues rates eventually prevail because very few companies are earning meaningful AI revenue yet, so non-AI companies absorb the pain through layoffs.
• He faults the Fed's projections as incoherent, saying rates were marked higher while every economic forecast was left alone, which amounts to assuming higher rates do no harm.
• He is skeptical that AI answers inside search can be monetized, citing his own experience getting the same answers from free models, and expects users to ration usage toward cheaper, smaller models to cut token costs.
• He closes by urging viewers to consider raising their credit allocation now and to plan against a goal rather than trying to beat the market year after year, pushing back on the idea that more equity risk is needed to hit a target.

Michael Lebowitz argues a calm S&P 500 hides real strain, with rate-sensitive sectors and the equal-weight index already well behind. Companies that issued bonds in 2021 at low rates now refinance near 6%, forcing layoffs, store closures and cut capital budgets. Lebowitz calls an AI capital spending slowdown the biggest market risk, since data centers supply about 4 points of GDP growth. Measuring real yields against breakeven inflation rates (what investors expect prices to rise) shows policy is more restrictive than the headline yield suggests. Lebowitz's team trimmed tech for value and moved from the 30-year into the 5-year, though oil near $120 could undo the rotation.

Ready For A Bear Market? Most Investors Aren't | Ted Oakley @OxbowAdvisors

• Top takeaway Taggart argues an AI-led selloff would hit 'safe' index funds harder than the dot-com bust did — endorsing Oakley's point that the top 10 stocks are 41-42% of the S&P — leaving index holders far more exposed to technology than they realize.
• He lays out a midstream renaissance thesis: US export growth, Gulf political risk after the Iran war, and a 100-year Venezuela oil lease should drive an infrastructure boom benefiting pipelines and service companies.
• He warns equity exposure is now highest among the oldest investors — some holding 80-90% in stocks by Oakley's account — so those with the least time to recover are taking the most risk.
• He proposes a webinar with Oxbow on couples' legacy transition planning, arguing the uninvolved spouse faces a painful but avoidable transition when the managing spouse can no longer continue.
• He discloses he is an Oxbow client and tells DIY investors to follow a veteran bear-market playbook — or hire a manager who has navigated one — rather than improvise through their first bear market.

Guest Ted Oakley calls the current economy a one-trick pony — pull AI out and the headline growth numbers weaken fast. Oakley pegs the top ten S&P companies at 41-42% of the index, so owning the index is not real diversification. Materials and energy are Oakley's two top sectors — pipelines especially, for irreplaceable infrastructure and cash flow paid on volume. He defines every bond outcome by maturity, holding three-month to three-year Treasuries, because long bond funds have lost money five years running. Liquidity is the edge: Oxbow's best years followed the 1987, 2003 and 2009 lows, while unprepared investors and first-time advisors risk capitulating at the bottom.

Higher Rates Bringing Higher Risk For Investors? | New Harbor Financial

• Top takeaway Taggart counters the bearish rate talk by citing GDPNow at 5.1% for the third quarter, arguing robust growth might let the economy handle higher bond yields for a while.
• He shows 30-year Treasury yields against net interest expense as a share of government revenue, calling the recent spike in debt service one of the pernicious effects of higher yields.
• His armchair refining take: with capacity around 98%, defense-production-act pushes, and oil deals (Venezuela, Canada negotiations, Greenland), the US is pushing to become the gas station to the world.
• He opens by noting higher rates mathematically pull capital from stocks toward bonds, yet equities remain near all-time highs, which frames the episode's risk question.

Rising 10-year Treasury yields near 5% look historically normal but bite harder with $40 trillion of US debt refinancing at higher rates. New Harbor expects a stock market top within months, then Fed easing that pushes the 10-year toward 3%, making high-quality bonds a tactical trade. Duration (a bond portfolio's price sensitivity to rate moves) explains why short-duration Treasury sleeves limit damage when yields rise. Housing looks set for a 20-30% price correction as higher mortgage rates bite, with Florida and Austin markets already slowing. Gold and silver must clear resistance near $4,600 and $74 spot before their next upleg, supporting real assets against slow-burn inflation.

We Must Not Abandon Capitalism For Socialism | Jonathan Wellum

• Top takeaway The host argues that socialism does not work and that capitalism should be fixed, not abandoned, citing Thatcher's line about running out of other people's money.
• He champions a "Monroe Doctrine 2.0" built on a more self-reliant Western Hemisphere trading bloc for resources, labor and manufacturing.
• He raises reports that Canadians steered toward medical assistance in dying later obtained curative treatment in the US, questioning what state-run medicine implies about the value placed on individual life.
• He stresses frugality and delayed gratification as the cornerstones of wealth building, citing the "Millionaire Next Door" findings and the Stanford marshmallow study.

Guest Jonathan Wellum argues Western capitalism needs repair rather than replacement, warning that socialism carries a 100% historical failure rate. Canada's Saskatchewan holds vast potash (a key fertilizer mineral) and uranium, giving it bargaining power the guest says Trump's Belarus threat ignores. Slow permits, high financing costs, and carbon taxes drove capital out of Canadian resources, which the guest blames for the country's stagnant growth. The guest pairs growth stocks with gold, silver, copper, and uranium so portfolios survive both an AI boom and debt-fueled debasement. With US interest costs nearing a quarter of federal revenue, he urges staying invested and disciplined rather than hiding in cash.

A Big Market Bull Just Turned Cautious | Ed Yardeni

• Top takeaway The host frames the most plausible recession trigger as something coming from the credit markets — a private credit or private equity blowup, or foreign buyers stepping away from Treasury auctions.
• He flags AI capex as the 'lead sled dog' of earnings and asks whether corporate America will see real incremental revenue from AI, or whether it becomes 'dot-com like' with tomorrow's valuation pulled into today; he also raises congressional regulatory pressure on AI as a wildcard.

Ed Yardeni pushes his S&P 500 year-end target from $8,400 to mid-2027 as Middle East re-escalation, oil prices, and Fed tightening bite. The bull-turned-cautious still keeps his 'roaring 2020s' base case at 70%, but now sees room for a buying opportunity if markets reset. Copper, steel, and aluminum stand out as commodity winners from the AI infrastructure and grid buildout, Yardeni says. Bank of Japan tightening and the unwinding yen carry trade are key near-term risks, alongside a possible credit event tied to government deficits.

This Is A Really Difficult Market To Navigate | Lance Roberts

• Top takeaway Argues humans are poor probabilistic thinkers and that media distortion amplifies the problem — investors systematically over-weight sensational tail risks like his own "shark attack" bias, which drags long-term returns even when the actual probability is tiny
• Shares he is an Enneagram 6 ("the protector"), naturally wired to scan for threats, and urges viewers to recognize their own wiring so they can override emotional impulses with data-driven ones
• Endorses a "TINA-to-TIAGA" framing — as rates normalize, capital should slosh from equities into credit, making a mathematical case that equity risk premiums should compress
• Cites Ed Yardeni's view that the new bond-yield normal is reverting to the pre-ZIRP 4-5% range, with roughly $110 trillion of boomer/silent-generation bond income acting as ongoing economic stimulus
• References Tom McClellan's presidential-election-cycle analysis, expecting the market to launch its typical third-year 12-month run a couple of weeks before the midterms

Roberts argues that when no clear trend is visible, the best move is often to do nothing and wait for direction. The Fed 25bp hike was priced in at 92%, but the 10-year Treasury cracking above 5% reflects term premium, not fundamentals. The TINA trade is over: pensions and hedge funds are rotating from equities into credit because 5% Treasury yields cover most actuarial needs. S&P 500 corporate interest coverage remains near all-time highs, so the long-feared debt rerating has not yet bitten the equity market. Roberts expects the next secular bear market to begin in the 2030s, when active management and patience will beat passive buy-and-hold.

Time To Start Getting REALLY Bullish? | Tom McClellan

• Top takeaway The host argues the near-term bottoming process in stocks is close to resolving and that bullish seasonality takes over once it does.
• Adam notes that the Fed raised rates by 25 bps the same day (as of 2026-09-17) in a unanimous 12-0 vote, with markets implying roughly 88% odds of further hikes by year-end.
• Adam shares he is buying his first home, with the mortgage assumption scheduled for summer 2027 — which he expects to coincide with peak Treasury yields.
• Adam moderates by challenging Tom on the strength of seasonality patterns and inviting comparison between pure chart analysis and New Harbor's macro-plus-TA approach.
• Adam reports that equities closed down about 0.5% after the Fed announcement, precious metals and commodities sold off hard, and long-term Treasuries ended slightly green.

Pre-midterm seasonal bottom should clear within a week, kicking off the historically bullish year-three rally of a presidential cycle. A recurring seven-year cycle in margin debt points to a 2028 top, with crude oil and Treasury yields also set to crest that year. Gold leads Treasury yields and crude oil by roughly 20 months, suggesting a sharp climb ahead in both over the next 14 months. QE (Quantitative Easing, the Fed's bond-buying program) has historically sent Treasury prices lower, the opposite of what buyers would expect. New Harbor pushes back on the bond bearishness, positioning for a tactical long-duration rally if equities roll over first.

The Truth About China: Collapsing & Conquering? | Peter Alexander

• Top takeaway Adam recommends modest China exposure via an ETF because it is the world's second-largest economy, and singles out gold as the strongest China-linked investment theme of the moment
• He frames the AI race as a winner-takes-all contest on par with a nuclear arms race, in which the side with the cheapest, most plentiful electrons wins — and Peter agrees China sits on roughly 3x US electrical capacity with ~30 nuclear plants under construction
• Adam argues the US defaults to regulatory capture over competition (the TikTok ban, the Skydio Act on DJI drones, Apple's stagnation), leaving American consumers with costlier and less innovative products like a foldable phone released years after Asian rivals
• He points to Huawei and Xiaomi unveiling new foldables two days before Apple's launch as evidence that Chinese manufacturers are now competing at the leading edge of consumer hardware, not only at the low end

China is parking dollar reserves in physical commodities — gold, copper, iron ore, phosphate, petroleum — as real-asset diversification away from the US dollar system. The reserve currency versus reserve asset distinction matters for investors: the US dollar keeps the former while gold increasingly anchors the latter. China commodity buying serves a dual purpose, feeding manufacturing demand and building strategic stockpiles that mirror its petroleum reserve approach. Peter Alexander argues the truth about China is always in the middle: neither on the verge of collapse nor poised for global hegemony.

Luke Gromen & Darius Dale: Which Inning Are We In?

• Top takeaway Recalls that in a previous interview Peter Turchin told him the US ranks highest on his tracked-country list for probability of revolution, reinforcing the discussion's framing of paradigm E as a base-rate outcome.
• Frames the practical takeaway for viewers as 'this is not a time to go it alone,' urging DIY investors to either hire a financial advisor or subscribe to a research service like 42 Macro or FFTT, given the unusually wide distribution of probable macro outcomes.

Gromen and Dale argue US true interest expense at 105% of receipts already signals a fiscal crisis several innings along. Dale's Paradigm A to E framework tracks fiscal dominance into debasement and political realignment; a bond market crisis could trigger Paradigm D by 2028. Fair value on the 10-year sits around 5.87% per Dale's models, but life insurers cannot rotate from private credit into Treasuries at any yield. Both guests see AI capex driving a productivity boom and major risk-asset gains before a bond reckoning forces yield curve control. Allocations lean into scarce assets: Gromen targets roughly 40 percent gold and gold miners with about 15 percent electrical-infrastructure equities; Dale expects bubbles in equities, gold, and Bitcoin.

We're Going To Pay A Heavy Price For Creating A Generation Of Speculative Drunkards | Lance Roberts

• Top takeaway Argues that society has created a generation of 'speculative drunkards' by normalizing options trading and sports-betting apps (Polymarket, Kalshi, DraftKings) for a financially underprepared youth, and warns the bill — both financial and psychological — comes due over the next 10–20 years
• Frames today's AI investment as a dot-com replay: argues expected profits have been pulled forward the way they were in 1999–2000 and that hyperscaler earnings are still being driven by CapEx/balance-sheet spending rather than incremental organic corporate profits from AI adoption, so a long, painful reset like the post-2000 NASDAQ is plausible even if AI is genuinely transformative
• Points to a Ned Davis 100-year logarithmic chart showing the S&P well above its long-term trend (last seen in 2000) and argues mean reversion is highly likely within roughly the next five years, while stressing he is staying long equities for now because earnings, driven by AI infrastructure, are still expanding
• Says schools gutted financial literacy and trades education (welding, construction, auto mechanics in middle and high school) right as credit card and speculation apps were marketed hardest to young people, leaving that cohort structurally exposed
• Closes with a 'this too shall pass' philosophy borrowed from Charlie Kirk — argues both bull and bear extremes distort judgment, cites a study saying optimists live roughly 20% longer than pessimists, and urges viewers to focus on lifting their average baseline over time rather than reacting to daily headlines

Guest expects no Fed rate hike next week, citing oil-driven PPI spikes, weak employment, and a 3.75% Fed funds rate already restrictive. Above-trend S&P valuations imply a 30-50% mean-reversion correction over five years; AI-driven earnings keep the bull intact short term. Surging retail options volume has turned investing into gambling, the guest argues, addicting a generation to speculation rather than wealth-building. Host urges investors to act on time horizon, not headlines — accumulate long-term, raise cash when the 50-day moving average breaks.

Bonds To Reverse Soon As Yields Approach 'Line In The Sand'? | Michael Lebowitz

• Top takeaway Frames the central question of the discussion: whether 10-year Treasury yields approaching 5% represent a 'line in the sand' that should prompt investors to begin adding bond duration
• Argues that retirees and near-retirees should re-examine their equity exposure and consider increasing bond allocations now to lock in current higher yields before year-end

Lebowitz sees 5% on the 10-year Treasury as a 'line in the sand' that will force the Treasury, Fed, and institutional buyers to intervene. Narratives around Iran, tariffs, deficits, and AI debt are pushing yields higher, but trimmed mean PCE at 2.3% shows fundamentals do not justify the move. Fed chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole pivot may be 'jawboning' to establish credibility before potential cuts into 2027. RIA is watching for technical reversal signals before extending bond duration, with three-to-five-year maturities the likely sweet spot. Trailing 10-year bond returns bottomed and CAPE near 41 argues for locking in higher yields, especially for retirees.