BONDS ARE COLLAPSING: 6% 10-YEAR Could Trigger a Crisis | Todd "Bubba" Horwitz

Liberty and Finance Sep 29, 2026 23:17

Summary

Horwitz expects 10-year Treasury yields to reach 6% by year-end, a level he says strains an economy already carrying $41 trillion of government debt.

He reads gold as range-bound rather than broken, and calls $4,000 a reasonable floor if the metals selloff continues.

Diesel near $9 a gallon drives shipping costs higher, and he blames refiners sitting on ample crude over any crude shortage.

The VIX, a fear gauge that reached 90 in 2008, sits near 16, which he reads as orderly selling rather than panic.

He advises investors to stay fully invested, cap daily risk at 3-5%, and clear credit card debt before buying anything.

Top takeaway The host frames the discussion around the 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 5% in the prior week and the market expecting another Fed hike in October, opening on a volatile session with gold down over $100 and silver also lower.
He presses the guest on what rising prices mean for ordinary households, questions whether the monthly jobs report still moves markets given how often it is revised, and raises the AI bubble, a possible diesel export ban and possible trucking strike as risks to watch.

Top takeaway The guest's central call is that the 10-year Treasury yield, which broke above 5% in the week before this 29 September 2026 recording, goes to roughly 6% by year-end 2026 with the Fed forced to hike at least once and possibly twice, and he describes that as the possible final straw that pushes equities down to the 40-60% decline he has argued for previously.
He backs the 2008 comparison with consumer credit data, citing about 19% of credit card users 90 days or more past due, 8% defaulting on car loans and 7% on mortgages, plus the return of stated-income 0% housing financing he describes as the old rigmarole.
On gold he says price is range-bound near $4,000 and had fallen roughly $169 on the day of the recording; he treats $4,000 as a reasonable safeguard if the range breaks lower, expects a bounce, and would buy in tranches using only money not needed for a mortgage or car payment.
He does not read the current decline as panic: the VIX is only around 16 versus roughly 90 in 2008 and the selling is orderly, so he expects real capitulation before the low is in and notes that markets do not announce themselves.
On energy and inflation, responding to the host's report of diesel near $9 a gallon and above $10 in parts of California, he argues the shortage is manufactured by refining constraints and record oil-company profits rather than a lack of crude, and puts true inflation closer to 10% than the reported 3.7%.

Top takeaway The guest blames today's 'bad inflation' on Federal Reserve policy stretching back to Alan Greenspan and his successors, while saying he is otherwise anti-Fed and gives the current Fed chair credit for at least admitting inflation is too high.