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Brace For Impact: The Catalyst For A 60% Crash | Todd "Bubba" Horwitz

Liberty and Finance Jul 8, 2026

Summary

Gold's bottom near $4,000 and silver's near $55 look intact to the guest, who argues long-term buyers can start accumulating physical metal.

The guest warns lofty earnings expectations leave the AI-led market set up for a 40-60% decline beginning with the Magnificent Seven stocks.

Rising credit card delinquencies and zero-down mortgage offers are the guest's warning signs of household stress echoing 2008.

The guest expects two rate hikes priced for this year, with the 10-year Treasury yield heading to 6% as the crash trigger.

Higher rates may pressure gold briefly, but the guest argues an equities panic would send money into precious metals while grains lead commodities higher.

Kevin Warsh's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Horwitz expects Kevin Warsh, as Fed chair, to raise interest rates and thinks higher rates are what the economy needs, ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting.
  • He supports Warsh's push to recalculate inflation, arguing official figures wrongly exclude energy and food, the average American's biggest expenses after housing.
  • He wants Warsh to rework employment statistics, claiming true US unemployment is likely north of 13-14% versus the U6 reading of 8.7%.
  • He gives Warsh a good grade so far but judges him on only one meeting, noting Warsh said the right things and has historically been more hawk than dove.
  • He sees markets pricing two rate hikes this year and warns a 10-year Treasury yield reaching 6% under Warsh could be the catalyst that knocks equities down.

Elijah K. Johnson's takeaways

  • Top takeaway As host, Johnson frames the interview around whether precious metals have bottomed and whether the AI-driven stock rally is a bubble.
  • He likens the housing setup to 2008 and asks whether the wave of trillion-dollar IPOs could be a way for big players to hand their exposure to retail buyers.

Todd Bubba Horwitz's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Horwitz is looking for a 40-60% haircut in equities starting with the Magnificent 7 and AI stocks, and sees rising rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield going to 6%, as the likely catalyst as of July 8, 2026.
  • He argues the bottom is in for gold around $4,000 and silver around $55, and says now is a reasonable time to accumulate physical metals without trying to pick the exact low.
  • He warns that more than 14% of credit-card borrowers being 90 days past due and builders offering zero-down mortgages echo the run-up to 2008, and expects banks to end up holding bad paper again.
  • He believes gold has already priced in the two rate hikes markets expect, stays bullish on gold long term, and says a panic out of equities could send money into precious metals.
  • He is short oil and expects crude to fall into the $50s on a glut, while seeing grains and cotton leading a broader commodity advance.

Alan Greenspan's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Horwitz calls Alan Greenspan the original bubble builder, the start of a critique spanning every Fed chair from Greenspan through Powell.

Ben Bernanke's takeaways

  • Top takeaway In the same critique of Fed chairs, Horwitz labels Ben Bernanke the worst in history.