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Doug Casey: Oil Tank Bottoms Imminent, Decade-Long Bull Run in Gold & Global Crisis

Palisades Gold Radio Jun 26, 2026

Summary

Oil looks near a floor on run-down inventories, and Casey favors oil stocks — some yielding about 10% — over futures.

Casey sees gold's 55-year bull market intact; with bullion no longer cheap, he favors underpriced mining stocks instead.

Casey notes mining stocks sit near 2% of the S&P 500 — neglect that leaves the industry historically cheap.

Casey is friendly toward fertilizer producers as sulphur costs normalize; grains and US natural gas look similarly cheap versus the rest of the world.

Debt-extended Western economies risk what Casey calls the Greater Depression, with trillion-dollar interest bills pushing rates and deficits higher.

Key points on Agnico Eagle Mines

  • Cited by the host as the example of a major gold producer when asking about value across the sector; Casey answers that value is 'very good and much better among the smaller companies', implying he favors juniors over majors like Agnico Eagle at the time of recording.

Stijn Schmitz's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Frames the episode's core question: how equity markets trading at or near all-time highs square with the largest commodity flow disruption in history at the Strait of Hormuz, and asks whether WTI around $70 is an opportunity to go long oil.
  • Points to tightening physical supply, noting Cushing - the hub where WTI is set - is operating below oft-recited operational limits, and asks how long the situation can continue before the bottom of the barrel is hit.
  • Challenges the demand-side risk with data, citing that global oil demand fell only about 1.5-3% in the 2008-2009 recession and asking whether even a greater depression would derail the short-term oil thesis.
  • Drives the fertilizer discussion, flagging his surprise that urea prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels and asking whether potash and phosphate producers like Mosaic and Nutrien, pressured by high sulfur prices, are a rebound play if the conflict fades.

Doug Casey's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Argues oil is near its bottom: reserves have been run down and must be refilled, and the US-Iran de-escalation is only a hiatus because the Israel-Iran dispute remains unsolved - as of the June 24, 2026 recording he is long oil stocks with both oil option spreads on.
  • Says oil and gas stocks are the best way to play it: energy is about 4% of the S&P versus roughly 20% in 1980, some producers yield safe dividends of 10% or more that should grow, and he is most friendly toward North American natural gas at around $3.
  • Calls mining stocks, at about 2% of the S&P, the cheapest things in the world because institutions shun the industry, and favors smaller entrepreneur-run companies - ideally bought through private placements with warrants - over majors.
  • Uses gold and silver as savings vehicles and says the gold bull market is still in motion, but at about $4,000 an ounce gold is no longer a good speculation - he guesses it looks better nearer $2,500 and has concentrated on 'very underpriced' mining stocks instead.
  • Reiterates that his 'greater depression' has begun: a debt-sustained real economy is on the edge of a precipice, and with the Federal Reserve forced to buy US government debt amid roughly $2 trillion annual deficits and over $1 trillion of yearly interest, he expects interest rates to go much higher.