Skip to main content

Mike Larson & Dave Erfle - Volatility Ahead, Metals Roaring, Why Silver Stocks Lag the Spike

The KE Report Jan 17, 2026

Summary

Silver's 2026 breakout above a 45-year resistance at $50 is structurally different from the 1980 Hunt Brothers corner and 2011's CME-driven speculative bubble — it is anchored by a sixth straight supply deficit and critical industrial demand.

Despite silver tripling in twelve months, silver equities have not delivered their historical 2–2.5× leverage to the metal, with stocks priced in silver at levels last seen during the 2020 pandemic crash.

Gold futures hit record highs above $4,600 as central bank buying, sovereign de-dollarization, and concerns about Fed independence create what the guest calls a "Category 5 hurricane" for precious metals.

Dave Erfle is rotating gains from advanced developers into drill-stage juniors under $200M market caps, where raising capital and diluting less aggressively is now possible for the first time in years.

The TSX Venture's breakout above 1,000 — a twelve-year neckline — carries a measured target near the 2011 high, roughly 150% higher from current levels if monthly closes confirm.

Key points on Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd

  • Mike Larson identifies Avino Silver & Gold Mines as the standout performer in his 2025 Money Show top picks report, up 567% as he tracked it through the year.

Mike Larson's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Mike Larson expects 2026 to be more volatile, especially in the first quarter and possibly first half, citing midterm elections, Fed policy uncertainty, and ongoing geopolitical headlines.
  • He has been bullish on metals since the second half of 2018 and remains constructive, but is being careful not to add too much exposure at current levels.
  • He sees opportunity in beaten-down areas like REITs and high-yield BDCs, where credit worries may be overdone, and continues to favor offensive over defensive positioning.
  • His annual Money Show top picks report (68 picks from 39 contributors for 2026, free with sign-up) tracks full-year performance; Avino Silver & Gold Mines (up 567%) and Heliostar Metals were among the 2025 top performers.
  • Early 2026 winners already concentrate in defense and drones (RedCat Holdings up roughly 23% in a week off the January 7 report), silver proxies like PSLV, an AI name (Wildan Group), and defensive dividend plays like Philip Morris and Hormel.