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“People Call Me Crazy”: Three Contrarian Macro Trades from Tavi Costa

MiningStockEducation.com Mar 26, 2026

Summary

Tavi Costa argues the gold sell-off was not a true liquidation, since equities and treasuries held steady while gold fell.

He suggests gray-area actors like Iran may have sold gold accumulated through oil trades conducted outside the dollar system.

Costa sees the pullback as an oversold buying opportunity and expects gold to be multiples higher over five to ten years.

Central-bank buying, dollar devaluation from US twin deficits, and stagnant mine supply form the core of his long-term gold thesis.

He took profits in energy, bought gold largely via futures and quality miners, and added contrarian options in treasuries, Chinese equities, and European banks.

Tavi Costa's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Argues the recent gold sell-off was not a true liquidation event — equities and treasuries were unchanged, so he treated the drop as an oversold buying opportunity and expects gold to be multiples of today's price within a decade.
  • Says he deployed most of his cash into gold itself (via futures and ETFs such as GLD) plus high-quality miners after the sell-off, while taking substantial profits in energy, which he views as overbought near term though intact long term.
  • Adds three contrarian option trades he expects to be mocked: long-term treasuries (via options), Chinese equities (calls, sized small because a Taiwan invasion would zero out shares), and European banks — all cheaply priced and bought with 1-2 year option horizons.
  • Frames his gold thesis around U.S. twin deficits forcing dollar devaluation, central-bank buying to justify system leverage, stagnant mine supply with no major new projects, deglobalization driving reserve building, and under-owned 60/40 portfolios needing gold.
  • Believes a reserve-currency change is unlikely within five years but expects gradual U.S. decline and unexpected currency moves, and is bullish on Brazil and Latin America if falling U.S. rates let Brazilian cost of capital decline, unlocking an economic-growth explosion.

Bill Powers's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Hosts the interview, pressing Costa on the gold sell-off narrative, the petrodollar talk, his gold-buying vehicles, and the three contrarian trades.
  • Proposes a six-month follow-up to review the contrarian trades; Costa counters on a 12-month review, which the host accepts.