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David Lotan Shows You How to Make Junior Mining Millions: Aurion & Fox River Buyouts Explained

MiningStockEducation.com Jul 8, 2026

Summary

Guest David Lotan built most of his Aurion and Fox River stakes buying public shares, arguing open-market bargains beat private deal access.

Aurion Resources sold to Agnico Eagle Mines for C$481 million ($2.60 per share cash); Fox River Resources followed at C$94 million ($1.10 per share).

Lotan ties the decade-long wait to consolidation among major gold producers; rising mid-tier buying power finally revived takeovers of juniors.

The multiyear Aurion-Rupert standoff shows embarrassed, hostile bidders can drag out timelines and destroy value on both sides of a takeover fight.

Management teams that refuse warrants (rights to buy future shares cheaply) and protect capital structures earn the investor trust that pays off at exit.

Key points on Agnico Eagle Mines

  • The guest confirms Agnico bought Aurion (rendered "Orion" in the transcript) for C$481 million all-cash at C$2.60 per share, of which he estimates about C$440 million went to shareholders and the rest to change-of-control payments, DSUs, PSUs and option buyouts.
  • Lotan says the anonymous strategic investment of roughly 7% of Aurion in August 2025 that investors deduced was Agnico signalled Aurion's strength, widened the Aurion/Rupert exchange ratio, and set up Agnico winning the company instead of Rupert.
  • Lotan portrays Agnico as a counterparty you can "deal on handshake with": the major terms of the Aurion transaction were entirely Agnico-driven, and he says the treatment of shareholders exceeded his expectations.
  • Fox River was sold in an all-cash C$94 million deal at C$1.10 per share to Avenir Minerals, which the host identifies as an Agnico subsidiary; Lotan adds that Agnico's aim of helping Canada with critical minerals made the phosphate asset ideal for them.
  • Lotan notes Agnico traded close to 1.5x price-to-NAV in early January 2026, lost the Foran takeover race to Eldorado "right under Agnico's nose", and saw movement in the Malartic pit cost it about a billion dollars of market cap.

Key points on Artemis Gold

  • Lotan says Artemis went up 6 or 7 times during the Aurion-Rupert conflict period, far outperforming both quarrelling companies.

Key points on B2Gold

  • Lotan says B2Gold was Aurion's joint-venture partner on the ground bordering Rupert's Ikkari discovery, making any takeover a tricky three-piece transaction.
  • He expected B2Gold, preoccupied with Sabina and with Mali heading in dangerous directions, to divest its position; instead he believes B2Gold and Rupert worked together to squeeze Aurion out.
  • Lotan also saw a pathway where B2Gold might have sold its JV stake to Aurion as the standoff dragged on, one of several outcomes that never materialized before Agnico stepped in.

Key points on Barrick Mining

  • Lotan recalls Barrick making a hostile attempt on Newmont while the latter was mid-way through acquiring Goldcorp, part of the wave of major consolidation he says shut down junior mining M&A.

Key points on Gold Fields

  • Lotan notes Gold Fields agreed to buy Yamana but ended up having to step back and let Agnico and Pan American Silver complete the purchase.

Key points on Kinross Gold

  • Kinross became Aurion's strategic investor in 2017 after Lotan staged what he calls a polite competition with Goldcorp and other majors, agreeing to a good price with no investor rights agreement.
  • Lotan cites Kinross as one of the big companies that could have bought Aurion and notes it returned about 600% over the conflict period while trading above 1x price-to-NAV into 2026.

Key points on Newmont

  • Lotan says Newmont was among the majors his team brought to the table in the 2017 strategic process that ended with Kinross investing in Aurion on friendlier terms.
  • After taking over Goldcorp and then Newcrest, Newmont spent a couple of years divesting assets, and Lotan estimates those mid-market sales created something like $300 billion of additional buying power as buyers' shares re-rated.
  • Lotan notes Barrick launched a hostile attempt on Newmont while the Goldcorp acquisition was still in progress.

Key points on Pan American Silver

  • Per Lotan, Gold Fields stepped back from the Yamana sale, letting Agnico Eagle and Pan American Silver buy Yamana instead.

Key points on SSR Mining

  • Lotan cites SSR Mining closing the Cripple Creek deal in early January 2025 and appreciating significantly afterwards as evidence that buyers of divested Newmont assets re-rated sharply.

Key points on Discovery Silver Corp

  • Lotan calls Discovery Silver the real kicker of the mid-market story: it bought the old Timmins camp and roughly quadrupled in value, a 90-cent stock at the deal that he thinks might trade near $10 as of the interview.

Key points on Eldorado Gold

  • Lotan says Eldorado's takeover of Foran, the Saskatchewan copper-zinc play the market expected to one day be an Agnico asset, was a shot across the bow that pushed would-be acquirers to get moving.
  • He also lists Eldorado as one of the corporates that could have been behind Aurion's anonymously disclosed 7% strategic investor.

Key points on Skeena Resources

  • Lotan says Skeena went up about six times during the Aurion-Rupert conflict period, an example of stocks that performed far better than either embattled company.

Adrian Day's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Lotan says Adrian Day was among the really savvy resource investors brought into Fox River's rebuilt shareholder register by corporate development professional Chris McIntyre ahead of the sale.

Robert Sinn's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Lotan recalls giving Robert Sinn an interview in early January 2026 in which he described a positive storm brewing: most gold producers trading above 1x price-to-NAV, Agnico and Kinross close to 1.5x, foreshadowing the M&A wave.

Eric Sprott's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Lotan cites Eric Sprott's incredible success with Kirkland Lake during the 2016 recovery, when Sprott was putting $25 million into juniors at a crack as a strategic investor.

Bill Powers's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The host frames the episode's core lesson for retail investors: Lotan bought about 96-97% of his positions in the two takeover companies in the open market, so unaccredited investors do not need private deal access to win in juniors.
  • He does the public math that Lotan's open-market buying across Aurion and Fox River produced a gain just shy of C$50 million, and stresses the decade-plus timeframe behind the result.
  • He draws on his recent conversation with Joe Mazumdar about director incentives to get Lotan's view that reputation for doing the right thing, not compensation, should drive board decisions.
  • He admits passing on Tenaz Energy at about $1.50 per share when guest Mark Zaratt pitched it on the show roughly four years ago, and says he regretted it as the stock passed $50 on its way to about $70.

David Lotan's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Lotan took Aurion from a 2015 near-dilution crisis to a C$481 million all-cash sale at C$2.60 per share and Fox River to a C$94 million cash sale, owning about 9.5% and 8% respectively, almost entirely bought in the open market for a combined gain just shy of C$50 million.
  • His playbook: find quality companies trading for peanuts that are missing one management ingredient, get hold of the capital structure before dilution ruins it, refuse to give warrants in financings, and treat shareholders fairly so open-market buying builds the premium exit price.
  • He took no compensation, options or equity of any kind from Aurion for commercial reasons, arguing the total alignment lowered the cost of capital and differentiated the story from typical Vancouver juniors.
  • He ran the two-year Rupert conflict as a war of time, minimizing Aurion's cost of delay and maximizing Rupert's, and says patient capital plus exploration progress widened the exchange ratio from about 0.14 to 0.26 by the simultaneous takeovers.
  • As of the interview he is 80% in commodity-related plays, remains the largest shareholder at over 10% and a director of companies run by others (rendered "Shabu-Gumu" in the transcript), and says his activist career is winding down.

Jeremy Grantham's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Lotan says Jeremy Grantham's famous 2011 paper arguing commodities had made a major trend change from a century of getting cheaper to getting more expensive was a key influence on his 2013-14 move into super-cheap junior miners.

Ross Beatty's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Lotan names Ross Beatty among the strategic investors writing a lot of cheques during the 2016 junior-market recovery that allowed Aurion to refinance on favourable terms.

Malcolm Shaw's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Lotan calls Malcolm Shaw one of the truly invaluable resources he met through activism, a good friend and great investor, and credits Shaw with the Tenaz Energy idea that made him tens of millions of dollars.