Stijn Schmitz

Col. Douglas Macgregor: The Iran War Restart, $13,000 Gold & The Point of No Return

• Top takeaway He notes that on the guest's previous June appearance the guest already predicted Israel would stay on the offensive through the ceasefire and pull the United States back in, says time proved that right, and presses him on where the conflict stands after the halt.
• He presses the downside cases he wants addressed: a Houthi blockade of Bab el-Mandeb cutting Saudi oil exports, refining capacity running at its limit, and the warning that being wrong on timing is as bad as being wrong directionally when playing oil through futures.

The guest argues the Iran halt is a pause, not a resolution, leaving oil supply risk and gold's safe-haven demand intact. Wholesale oil sits near $140 a barrel, and he expects $150 to $200 if strikes resume, with refining already at capacity. He sees gold reaching $13,000 to $15,000 an ounce by 2029 to 2031, driven by debt arithmetic and continued central bank buying. A Houthi blockade of Saudi exports would strand Gulf oil and gas, he says, unless Gulf states push out US forces. His defensive posture is cash and precious metals rather than margin, arguing that borrowing turns wrong timing into forced selling.

Martin Armstrong: Why The World Order Will Collapse in 2032 | Gold, Oil & The US Dollar

• Top takeaway Frames the gold rally as a fiat-currency debasement story rather than a US dollar story, noting $11,000 gold by 2032 implies roughly a 60% loss of the dollar's purchasing power.
• Presses Armstrong on whether even $11,000 gold is too small relative to the reset needed to bring sovereign debt back to long-term average levels.
• Sets up the oil outlook by contrasting the recession call, with a potential bottom around 2028, against what he sees as imminent physical oil shortages.

Armstrong argues Iran is playing '3D chess' — targeting Gulf states' finances through Hormuz and Dubai attacks to trigger a debt crisis. He forecasts gold reaching $7,000-8,000 and possibly $11,000 by 2032 as capital flees wars into US assets. He expects higher oil prices even in recession, producing stagflation (inflation plus stagnant growth) that defeats Keynesian rate-hike policy. He warns Japan, the Gulf, and Europe face the likeliest sovereign debt crises after negative rates wrecked European pension funds. His computer model points to 2032 as the collapse of republican government, with a commodity bull market running from 2027.

Josef Schachter: Imminent Gasoline Shortages, Tank Bottoms & 'Much Higher' Oil Prices for Longer

• Top takeaway Host Stijn Schmitz frames the discussion around Asian refining tightness and presses Schachter to quantify floating storage as a cushion against the supply/demand deficit.
• Host Schmitz surfaces the EV adoption angle, prompting Schachter's view that GM and Ford EV losses reflect weak US consumer uptake while Tesla's growth came from Europe.

Global refined-product tightness in Asia, not crude supply, is the real energy shortage — Asian product prices imply more than $150 per barrel of oil. US oil production has surged roughly a million barrels per day, enabling 3-4 million barrels of exports that cushion global markets. China's willingness to withhold 10 million barrels per day of demand makes it the de facto swing buyer for global oil markets. Oil producers are using windfall cash to pay down debt and buy back stock rather than boost drilling, limiting the near-term supply response. Escalation scenarios could push oil above $150 and trigger a global recession; a peace deal could send prices back into the $60s-$70s.

Bob Moriarty: Imminent 'Explosion' Of Fuel Prices, World War 3 & Global Depression

• Top takeaway Schmitz hosts the discussion, framing each segment around oil-supply manipulation, refinery/diesel tightness, and the value proposition of junior miners versus deleveraged producers.
• He discloses that Palisades Goldcorp (PALI) is the show's parent company and sponsor of the episode.

Bob Moriarty argues Middle East escalation has flipped oil price suppression into acute supply risk, with WTI below $85 masking a 17-18 million bpd shortage. SPR drawdowns, destroyed Saudi refinery capacity, and dry Cushing storage leave no headwinds left; Moriarty warns of a near-term fuel-price explosion. Crack spread data implies paper WTI and Brent prices sit far below what refiners actually pay, hinting at managed suppression that creates contrarian entry points. Gold trades under $4,100 despite escalating currency debasement; Porter Stansberry projects a $4,000-$6,000 range this year, with physical metal as core insurance. Junior miners sit at historic relative lows versus bullion; pick 5 to 10 winners across a basket of 50 since most juniors never reach production.

Lobo Tiggre: Why There's Not A Single Gold Mining Stock I Would Buy Today

• Top takeaway Schmitz frames gold's 25-30% slide from its January peak as a correction within an ongoing precious-metals bull market.
• He calls the war-driven supply disruption the largest commodities flow disruption in history, with inventories drawing down, and asks whether the structural drivers point to a Weimar-style inflation cycle rather than a normal bull market.

Lobo Tiggre argues gold's long-term case — central bank buying and de-dollarization — remains intact, but he does not consider the correction's bottom confirmed. He is holding cash for a potential fall to $3,000 gold — a deeper, 1980-style drawdown he calls his no-brainer buying level. Gold miners look cheap versus the metal, yet he is buying no gold or silver stocks today, expecting even proven names to get cheaper. Uranium is his top setup: the real long-term contract price keeps rising while spot lags, and spot historically snaps back upward. Copper's structural supply crunch keeps him bullish long term, but war-driven demand destruction could create the low buying opportunity he is patiently waiting for.

Steve Hanke: What Everyone Is Getting Wrong on Iran War, The Commodity Super Cycle & Gold

• Top takeaway Notes that tanker traffic into the Strait of Hormuz is even lower than the single outbound transit on July 16, 2026, and argues there will be significant lag effects before effectively locked-out oil fields can restart.
• Uses Rick Rule's estimate that the dollar must lose about 75% of its purchasing power over the next decade to press the guest on why the gold bull market would cap at $6,000 rather than run as long as deficit monetization continues.
• Suggests phosphate producers currently being squeezed by high sulfur input costs could see output prices and margins rise, which the guest endorses.
• Floats smaller oil producers with untapped production as a way to play a price spike, though the guest says that trade requires specialized knowledge.

Backwardation (spot oil priced above futures) signals critically low inventories; Hanke expects a sharp price spike once physical stocks run dry later this summer. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed (one tanker transited July 16) and Russia has cut diesel exports, squeezing both oil inventories and flows. Hanke sees the gold bull market intact with a peak near $6,000 per ounce, driven mainly by central bank buying below reserve targets. Deglobalization forces firms to hold larger precautionary inventories, a structural demand boost that fuels the commodity supercycle alongside war-driven shortages. Copper and tungsten deficits look structural because most critical minerals are byproducts, so supply cannot respond quickly when demand rises.

Rory Johnston: What Everyone Is Getting Wrong About The Oil Price Amidst Iran War

• Top takeaway As host, frames the investment question of whether there is still an opportunity to go long refineries with diesel crack spreads around $80 a barrel, drawing out Johnston's view that refining assets outside drone reach look attractive.
• Raises the Western inventory picture for discussion, citing rumors that SPR salt caverns cannot be fully drained and that Cushing is at operationally low levels, which prompts Johnston's commercial-versus-strategic stocks explanation.

Prompt time spreads swung from $2 backwardation to contango and back within a month, volatility the guest calls unprecedented. Gulf loadings are capped by inbound empty tankers, not production: Hormuz exits fell from 15 million to 7.5 million barrels daily. China's 5 million barrel-a-day import swing, likely hidden product stock draws, did more than the entire IEA strategic release. Refining, not crude, is the real bottleneck: diesel cracks above $80 a barrel make diesel twice the price of crude. The world still runs a multi-million barrel daily deficit even with every offset maxed, risking $200 oil if China returns fully.

Rick Rule: Why Gold Is Still ‘Stupidly’ Under Owned, Oil Shortages, Silver & Palisades Goldcorp

• Top takeaway Schmitz frames the interview as a hunt for the current opportunity set, and after Rule declines to name a commodity he presses him on contrarian areas, on whether the 1970s oil-price episode is a valid parallel today, on whether silver miners are still valued near $40 silver, and on refiners.
• Speaking for a show he calls sponsored by Palisades Gold Corp, his parent company, he promotes the vehicle and its Nevada gold ground during the segment and then puts Rule on the record asking directly for his view of its value proposition.

Gold is 'stupidly' under-owned: precious metals hold 0.5% of US savings assets versus a 2% four-decade mean, implying fourfold demand. Rule frames gold as a purchasing-power hedge — up 8% compounded over 26 years while the dollar sheds 75% over the next decade. Oil's coming shortage is structural, not geopolitical: roughly $2.5 trillion of deferred sustaining capital that no armistice can close. A debasement era lifts mine construction inputs about 10% a year, so future cash flow projections need far heavier cost inflation. Silver producers mining at $35 an ounce compete against copper byproduct credits near $0.50, which squeezes out the most marginal operations.

Brien Lundin: The Next Rally in Gold Starts This Fall & Why The Copper Bull Run Has Just Started

• Top takeaway The host frames the current gold market as a contest between East and West: US traders lump gold in with other risk assets and sell everything when higher oil prices raise inflation fears and push central bank policy hawkish, which creates a temporary dip in the uptrend line that China is glad to take, leaving the West making the price.
• For margins, the host notes that gold miners are making incredible amounts right now, while in previous bull markets rising costs left producers more marginal over time, and presses whether projects can still generate profits as that gap between production costs and price narrows.

Debt and deficits argue for long-term currency depreciation, which Lundin frames as the structural bull case for metals and mining. Central bank purchases now cushion price dips rather than drive rallies, leaving Western traders in control of day-to-day direction. Mining stocks and silver lead gold in a Western-driven market, reversing the lag seen while central banks set the price. Ask management questions whose correct answers are unflattering, since the guest notes funded companies have little reason to volunteer bad news. Copper projects need roughly 16 years to reach production, so rising demand meets supply that cannot respond within a price cycle.

Dr. Nomi Prins: Silver Price 'Heavily Suppressed', Uranium Miners & Gold

• Top takeaway He presses the main counterargument to the silver bull case: if producers are already highly profitable at around $50-$65 silver, citing roughly 66% operating margins, why would higher prices be needed to incentivize production and close the supply gap.
• He asks whether uranium miners' underperformance signals they offer no upside to the commodity or is just a lag effect, framing the guest's re-rate thesis.
• He challenges the claim that energy markets have normalized, pointing out that strategic petroleum reserves around the world are still being drawn down.
• He raises Turkey recently sending a large amount of its gold to stabilize the currency as a potential counterexample to durable central bank support for the gold bull market.
• He asks what makes a junior miner 'appropriate', drawing out the guest's criteria of local community buy-in, state and country support, higher grade relative to rock, and seasoned management.

Silver's paper price trades far below physical reality: a sixth straight supply-deficit year means mine output is bought immediately by industrial and solar demand. Uranium holds near $85 while utilities contract at $95-$100, so miners' share-price lag against a firming price is the opportunity. Major gold miners sit on large cash with costs near $1,800 against $4,100 gold, positioning them to acquire or fund junior developers. A 35-year survey cited by the guest finds gold beat cash roughly five-to-one after inflation, with strong juniors multiplying that edge. Oil has normalized into a $70-$80 band as depleted strategic reserves need replenishing, favoring Colombian producers whose heavy crude US refineries process.

Tavi Costa: These Are The Biggest Opportunities in Mining Right Now

• Top takeaway He pushes back on the guest's dismissiveness toward critical minerals, arguing the opportunity is unique to each company and that a single mine coming online in a critical mineral could move the price.
• He presses for a straight answer on copper, asking whether the bullish case rests on the metal itself or on the developers and producers that lever into it, given copper is already at or near all-time highs.

The guest argues gold's 25-30% pullback inside a secular bull market is an accumulation window, not a trend break. Quality producers are down 40-50% and technically oversold, with large multi-asset operators the guest considers liquid ways to play it. He sees copper near all-time highs as the strongest structural story, arguing institutional money should go into copper mines. The guest treats energy as a portfolio hedge against metals, with natural gas the near-term answer to data-center power demand. He cautions against critical-minerals enthusiasm, pointing to the lithium bust as a template for misallocated institutional capital.

Adrian Day: Sentiment 'Unbelievably Lopsided' for Gold, Still 'Very Undervalued', Silver and Oil

• Top takeaway The host frames the episode's opportunity case around sector-wide underinvestment and gold and silver being down massively from their January peak.
• He steers the interview from valuing gold bullion and miner valuations through management evaluation to oil and gas and thermal coal.

Gold's bull-bear sentiment index has collapsed below 10% bullish, a lopsided extreme the guest treats as a classic contrarian buy signal. Bullion pays no income, so the guest values gold only relatively — inflation-adjusted, against global debt and money supply — and finds it cheap. The guest times cycle tops with exponential price moves, media saturation, ETF inflows, physical premiums, and novices handing out gold tips. In mining stocks, people and balance sheets beat geology: back honest, experienced teams with access to money and committed major shareholders. Major gold producers trade at historic-low multiples, and the guest sees value in unloved oil and Asian-facing thermal coal.

Michael Gentile: 'Turbo-Charged' Gold, Silver & Why The Juniors Are Still Incredibly Cheap

• Top takeaway The host frames the conversation by noting that gold is down around 30% from its January high, precious metals are in a deep consolidation, and tungsten is in a sharp supply crunch.
• He presses the guest on whether gold can gain in relative value against other assets, not merely keep pace with debasement, and on where the money for reshoring and de-globalization spending will come from.

The guest stays bullish on precious metals over a five-to-ten-year horizon and treats this pullback as a buying opportunity, not a broken thesis. U.S. debt nearing $40 trillion at 5% interest would cost about $2 trillion a year, roughly 40% of federal revenue he says. Central banks drove gold higher; he expects mainstream investors, holding just 1% to 2% in gold, to drive the next leg. Mid-tier gold producers earn 10% to 20% free cash flow yields against 1% to 3% for tech, making miners cheap beside an expensive market. He screens juniors on whether they can realistically become mines, focusing on geology because corporate problems are the fixable kind.

Clem Chambers: The End of Democracy, Oil 'Screaming Buy' Right Now & Gold To Continue To Crash

• Top takeaway The host argues WTI near $70 a barrel looks like a 'screaming opportunity' given the commodity-flow disruption, inventory drawdowns, GDP growth and decades of underinvestment.
• He frames the setup for the guest — gold down about 30% from its January peak and oil down about 40% from its March high — and presses on what fills a reserve-currency vacuum.

Chambers expects gold to fall toward $3,500 as the China-Taiwan war premium fades and inflation replaces geopolitics as the main driver. He argues China's sacked generals show the army resisted invading Taiwan, postponing the geopolitical bid that had driven gold's rally. He frames the US-China AI race as an energy build-out where electricity is destiny, favoring nuclear, fossil fuels, and grid investment. He favors platinum and palladium: tiny 200-ton annual supply, Russian and South African production risk, and catalytic converters destroy roughly as much as is mined. He advises holding 2.5 to 5 percent of assets in physical gold or ETFs through dollar-cost averaging, and avoiding miners he cannot predict.

Doug Casey: Oil Tank Bottoms Imminent, Decade-Long Bull Run in Gold & Global Crisis

• Top takeaway Frames the episode's core question: how equity markets trading at or near all-time highs square with the largest commodity flow disruption in history at the Strait of Hormuz, and asks whether WTI around $70 is an opportunity to go long oil.
• Points to tightening physical supply, noting Cushing - the hub where WTI is set - is operating below oft-recited operational limits, and asks how long the situation can continue before the bottom of the barrel is hit.
• Challenges the demand-side risk with data, citing that global oil demand fell only about 1.5-3% in the 2008-2009 recession and asking whether even a greater depression would derail the short-term oil thesis.
• Drives the fertilizer discussion, flagging his surprise that urea prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels and asking whether potash and phosphate producers like Mosaic and Nutrien, pressured by high sulfur prices, are a rebound play if the conflict fades.

Oil looks near a floor on run-down inventories, and Casey favors oil stocks — some yielding about 10% — over futures. Casey sees gold's 55-year bull market intact; with bullion no longer cheap, he favors underpriced mining stocks instead. Casey notes mining stocks sit near 2% of the S&P 500 — neglect that leaves the industry historically cheap. Casey is friendly toward fertilizer producers as sulphur costs normalize; grains and US natural gas look similarly cheap versus the rest of the world. Debt-extended Western economies risk what Casey calls the Greater Depression, with trillion-dollar interest bills pushing rates and deficits higher.

John Feneck: Big Supply Crunch Coming to This Critical Mineral & Quality Gold Miners On Sale

• Top takeaway The host frames the discussion as a very opaque tungsten market in a severe supply crunch, noting that Japan recently said it was shutting around 25% of global tungsten hexafluoride supply, a precursor to semiconductors.
• He puts the precious-metals drawdown on the table, down roughly 25% to 30% from the January peak, and asks whether it is a buying opportunity, while noting tungsten prices are already up about ten times from pre-crunch levels.

China, Russia and North Korea control roughly 85% of global tungsten, and the US has produced none since 2015. China's January 1 cutoff of Japanese tungsten shows how fragile allied supply chains have become. Nevada projects lead domestic tungsten options; Western Star reports grades above 3% versus 0.3% for the average junior. The guest calls the 25% to 30% precious metals pullback a buying opportunity, with silver holding 60 and gold 4,000. His names include Power Metallic, Silverco, Americas Gold & Silver, Triumph Gold, Norsemont and Eastport Critical.

Trader Ferg: What Everyone Gets Wrong About The Iran War | Asymmetric Upside

• Top takeaway The host guides the conversation through oil supply dynamics, China's energy flexibility, thermal coal, gold, and inflation, pressing the guest on where shortages will show up and whether gold's pullback is a buy-the-dip opportunity.
• He contributes his own market observations, noting that urea prices had returned to pre-war levels and that gold was down roughly 25% from its January peak.

Offshore engineering and oil services sit at bottom-cycle valuations with order books filling as the Iran war pushes shippers to de-risk the Strait. Thermal coal stays tight: Russian LNG only partially restarted, Asian cooling demand absorbs cargos, and buyers who cannot afford LNG upgrade to Newcastle-quality coal. China's energy flexibility — an under-reported strategic reserve, swing coal-plant utilization, and resold LNG cargos — blunts crisis price spikes and caps oil upside. Long-dated call options on trading houses like Shell pair cheap volatility with LNG exposure, a profitable trading arm, and buybacks into an energy-inflation decade. Gold's tourist-driven pullback still shows negative GDXJ outflows, and a neutral reserve asset thesis keeps gold bid for at least a decade.

Col. Douglas Macgregor: The Restart of the Iran War, Why Oil Will Go Back Up & Gold

• Top takeaway As host, Stijn Schmitz frames the discussion around the leaked 14-point MOU, pressing Macgregor on whether it represents an admission of defeat and what pressure is driving Trump to sign it.
• He raises the market angles throughout, noting oil being talked down to around $78 a barrel, sulphur trading at all-time highs while urea sits at pre-war levels, and asking how gold's purchasing power could develop.

The guest argues Iran has won the war and any signed MOU will not hold, predicting Israel will resume offensive operations. He forecasts oil will climb back above $100 as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (the US emergency oil stockpile) drains by fall. His core call: energy, metals, minerals, fertilizer, and food are the only sectors to own, while AI and similar themes are bubbles. The guest argues gold will become the reserve currency again with no ceiling, and Bitcoin will serve as a transactional alternative. He warns an economic tsunami is still building, with fertilizer and energy shortages yet to hit agriculture and financial markets.

Bill Holter: Massive Inflation Ahead, Why All Markets Are Rigged & Derivatives Meltdown

• Top takeaway The host frames the setup: the Strait of Hormuz conflict amounts to the largest commodity-flow disruption in history while the precious metals complex sits at its lowest point of 2026 so far.
• He presses the contrarian case, citing David Hunter's expectation of a melt-up across asset classes and Fergus Cullen's point that equity multiples fall during high-inflation periods, and he raises Buffett's stock-versus-GDP indicator as an all-time high.

The guest argues the economy faces simultaneous hyperinflation and hyperdeflation, with living costs rising while asset prices fall. Higher rates cut borrowing capacity, so fewer buyers qualify and asset prices fall even without heavy selling. US debt service has climbed to about $1.5 trillion a year, more than 25% of tax revenue, and keeps rising. He expects silver's six-year structural deficit to trigger a delivery failure that spills into gold and derivatives. Gold and silver miners swing roughly three times as much as the metals, and he suggests 15-20% in miners.

Florian Grummes: Severe 'Oil Price Shock' Coming, Bursting AI Bubble & Gold Miners

Grummes predicts a severe oil price shock by late summer or early autumn, driven by Middle East supply disruptions, critically low inventories, and a disconnect between paper and physical markets. The guest argues the AI bubble is bursting and will drag broader equities lower, reinforcing his case for holding gold and silver as hedges against fiat currency debasement. Gold miners remain undervalued but uncertain; Grummes favors quality names and notes the GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) must break key resistance to confirm a sustained sector rally.